Elliott Wave - Do you use it?

[positivecashflow]

Does anyone here trade the Elliot Wave Type 1 or 2?

[DTM]

Am aware of it but don't have the software. I use option gear for the Australian market. I do have advanced get for the american markets but have only used it to find wave 4's and 5's.

[positivecashflow]

Hi DTM,

I think you can load in the Aust data into AGET... not sure how its done though... i'm getting direct data from esignal for US markets like you... As for OptionGear the market scanners are a bit clunky, but thumbs up for the options analysis.

[doctorj]

I've been receiving receiving a newsletter for the past week or so from a gentleman by the name of Nick Radge from MaqBank and ReefCap fame. He certainly seems a fan of Elliot Wave TA and he's sparked an interest with in me to learn more about it.

Here is an portion of one of his emails, with accompanying graph for those unfamiliar with what EW is all about.


TMO was discussed last week as an educational example. This week we have it as a possible opportunity. TMO has fabulous fundamentals with several brokers tagging the stock as a Strong Buy. Our wave count suggest we're completing a wave-[4] decline. The target range for wave-[5] using current levels is $0.98 - $1.33 with the probable target being $1.33.

The zones are:0% $0.92, 25% $0.83, 50% 74, 25% 65. Wrong below $0.55.

[tech/a]

Doc doing the same and havent had a chance to see how Nicks charts have performed.

He has been studying Elliot intensly since 96 I believe and from what I see very good at labeling the legs.
Elliot is a very good form of analysis I think for shorter term trading but hard for most to get their head around the fact that the leg your trading could go pearshaped and completely bugger up your count.

To be proficient will mean years of study.

Dr Jeff Eiseman(From reefcap) used Advanced Get for many years and found the labelling even by the software to be annoying.Youd be trading a wave 3 when price action indicates that the 3 wave A,B,C correction is infact not over but developing a 4th down leg in perhaps a 5 wave correction.(as an example).He has given up trading with it for consistant profits.

Nicks service will even track an index or individual stocks at $15/chart.

tech

[DTM]

Elliot wave is supposed to be a study of psychology, specifically greed. Therefore it's very subjective. If you could gauge the level of confidence/sentiment, you'd probably do better at labelling the wave counts yourself. I also find using advanced get troublesome and would rarely use it.

[MARKETWAVES]

GOLDIE..............
I'VE BEEN LOOKING FOR GOLD NUGGETS............... HERES WHAT I FOUND ...........
HOW MUCH MORE FURTHER CAN , 7 CHARTS ............. BELOW...

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=33657&u=marketwaves&a=marketwaves&id=1146

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=33658&u=marketwaves&a=marketwaves&id=1146

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=33659&u=marketwaves&a=marketwaves&id=1146

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=33660&u=marketwaves&a=marketwaves&id=1146

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=33661&u=marketwaves&a=marketwaves&id=1146

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=33663&u=marketwaves&a=marketwaves&id=1146

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=33664&u=marketwaves&a=marketwaves&id=1146

[reichstag911]

TMO make that EXPENSIVE black box StarTrader charting software...

They tried to sell it to me.

What a joke.

[reichstag911]

Check out the Theorist ...

FreeWeek at elliottwave.com ends tomorrow, Wednesday, May 25, at 5 PM Eastern (New York time).

www.elliottwave.com/freeweek

Elliott Wave Theorist, Bob Prechter’s world-famous publication, gives you unique insights into sociological and psychological signals in the marketplace (again, you get the 3 most recent monthly issues. PS – the May 2005 Theorist has just come out!)
Plus, you get complete access to all the subscriber-only "Extras."

[MARKETWAVES]

NASDAQ .....


POSSIBLE .........ELLIOTT WAVE-COUNT



TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliot Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …

[MARKETWAVES]

PG.. 2

[BXP]

I think Radge says he's realeasing a book on how he trades Elliott Wave. This is from his web site "A new book Yes, it had to happen. Nick is in the process of writing a new book which will be released towards the end of the year. The book covers Nick's unique trading philosophy and his approach to trading shares and CFD's using the confluence of Elliott Waves and low risk chart patterns"

[The Barbarian Investor]

TMO make that EXPENSIVE black box StarTrader charting software...

They tried to sell it to me.

What a joke.

Hi reichstag911

What don't you like about StarTrader?

the reason I ask is a friend has recently purchased it and is very impressed..so much so that he is looking to upgrade to thier package that does options as well (I'm a bit concerned as he's never done options before and will be relying solely on this package..however the results he's had over the last few Months with the package has enforced his belief in the system- I told him I'd do a search and see if I could get any feedback about it and this was the first place I've looked).

Anyone esle have any feedback?

Regards

[RichKid]

Hi reichstag911

What don't you like about StarTrader?

the reason I ask is a friend has recently purchased it and is very impressed..so much so that he is looking to upgrade to thier package that does options as well (I'm a bit concerned as he's never done options before and will be relying solely on this package..however the results he's had over the last few Months with the package has enforced his belief in the system- I told him I'd do a search and see if I could get any feedback about it and this was the first place I've looked).

Anyone esle have any feedback?

Regards

I'm afraid Reichstag is 'on permanent holiday', he's been banned! He might have made comments about it in other threads so might be worth searching for those as a last resort.

[porkpie324]

I attended a CFD seminar Sun&Mon in Brisbane with a strong emphasis on trading using Elliot Wave theory, the 'Profit Source' software was promoted, anyone using this software?, any comments, porkpie

[bingk6]

I would also appreciate any feedback from anybody who may have any experience / feedback on the following Elliott Wave Metastock Plugin. Is it any good ???

http://www.equis.com/products/thirdparty/?3PC-ADD-AOEW

[porkpie324]

I would be interested on comments regarding the metastock plugin. porkpie

[swingstar]

A book I'm reading (Dynamic Trading by Miner) says Elliott Wave is only useful 50% of the time. Or rather Elliott Wave can only be applied about 50% of the time, and pretty much only the basic impulse and ABC correction is useful for trading. The author doesn't recommend EW software since they try to apply an EW count all of the time on anything, when there won't always be one, or one with any practical value.

I've been to a Profit Source seminar BTW, a few years ago. They also advocated EW back then. The strategy they suggested was shorting ABC corrections after the software had counted a five wave impulse.

[porkpie324]

I have just been onto the CMC forum and the profit stratgies seminars along with the profit source software did'nt get favourable reviews. porkpie

[bingk6]

I once saw a demo of the profit source program and the thing that intrigued me was the fact that it was able to automatically label the waves for you, and also provide some form of target pricing. From memory, you were able to scan the stocks that it thought was currently in the wave 3 or wave 5 or whatever.

After having read Nick Radge's book on adaptive analysis (BTW Great book Nick, certainly concur with the positive feedback you have been receiving), whereby he goes in some detail on how fibonacci numbers can used to project where wave 3 and wave 5 are likely to end, and the all important concept of confluence whereby you hit the "sweet spot" all at or around the same level.

Specifically, I am looking for automated way of hitting these sweet spots and I find it totally impractical to "eyeball" charts to first of all label these waves and then to calculate the projection from there. It is for this reason that I am interested in the metastock plugin, to see whether it can in fact label the waves just like profit source. If it can, I am 1/2 way there.

[Nick Radge]

bingk6,
Glad you liked the book. Dynamic Trading is also a very good book on EW. I use a lot of volume analysis as well which I think makes a very large difference. I did not have room to discuss this inmy book, but it is well worth using for confluence and ends of waves etc.

Do a google search for Advanced GET. I think its the best EW software out there and comes with various setups based on specific rules. ProfitSource uses the same algorithm as GET and I beleive the developer of ProfitSource actually originated from GET anyway. The scan functionailty of ProfitSource is better, but it lacks the minor labeling that GET has. The minor labelling opens many more opportunities for trades as well as getting a better idea of when the larger waves will complete. These packages aren't cheap and my personal opinion is the money is best spent with real time trading decisions which allow real time education.

I still believe eyeballing will be better for you in the longer term, especially knowing the volume nuances as well. Here is an example of AUW with clear volume attributes that are confirming a very good probability wave-iii high:

Aust Wealth Management (AUW) (http://www.projectstreamer.com/users/reefcap/1011_auw/)


Hope this helps,

[It's Snake Pliskin]

How efficient is EW for determining the future?
There are two elements of concern: time and price.
If time is corruptable due to the action of price then how does using EW achieve accurate projections?

Using it from a trader's point of view I am interested in.

[Bobby]

How efficient is EW for determining the future?
There are two elements of concern: time and price.
If time is corruptable due to the action of price then how does using EW achieve accurate projections?

Using it from a trader's point of view I am interested in.
Greetings Snake,

I think its just a supplement of possiblity, in todays speed of internet trading, EW seems redundant.

Take care
Bob.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Greetings Snake,

I think its just a supplement of possiblity, in todays speed of internet trading, EW seems redundant.

Take care
Bob.

Hi Bob,

Good to have you comment this evening. :)

I have been delving into some wave analysis and would like to talk to some people about it. You mentioned the speed of the internet. Are you saying it creates too much noise to accurately define waves?

I have come across a variation of EW that I am still trying to understand. I will post it in due coarse but would like to draw a reference point from what is percieved as traditional EW and go from there. Nick, Magdoran and Wavepicker and all lets talk EW.

EW is one thing I need to add to my toolbox.

Regards
Snake

[Bobby]

Hi Bob,

Good to have you comment this evening. :)

I have been delving into some wave analysis and would like to talk to some people about it. You mentioned the speed of the internet. Are you saying it creates too much noise to accurately define waves?

I have come across a variation of EW that I am still trying to understand. I will post it in due coarse but would like to draw a reference point from what is percieved as traditional EW and go from there. Nick, Magdoran and Wavepicker and all lets talk EW.

EW is one thing I need to add to my toolbox.

Regards
Snake


Hello Snake,

Have a deep look into it mate, but ask this of yourself, if it works why DO those that push it need to?

Its like a prognosis of the maybe.

Cheers Bob.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Hello Snake,

Its like a prognosis of the maybe.

Cheers Bob.

Bob,

I"ll talk to the resident experts, but it is interesting. The problem I have is "where do I put the counts"? Why not here instead of there?

Cheers

[It's Snake Pliskin]

A book I'm reading (Dynamic Trading by Miner) says Elliott Wave is only useful 50% of the time. Or rather Elliott Wave can only be applied about 50% of the time, and pretty much only the basic impulse and ABC correction is useful for trading. The author doesn't recommend EW software since they try to apply an EW count all of the time on anything, when there won't always be one, or one with any practical value.
I've been (went)to a Profit Source seminar BTW, a few years ago. They also advocated EW back then. The strategy they suggested was shorting ABC corrections after the software had counted a five wave impulse.

So as a trader the above would mean looking quickly and if it doesn't jump out at you it isn't there?

[It's Snake Pliskin]

The minor labelling opens many more opportunities for trades as well as getting a better idea of when the larger waves will complete.
I still believe eyeballing will be better for you in the longer term, especially knowing the volume nuances as well. Here is an example of AUW with clear volume attributes that are confirming a very good probability wave-iii high:


Nick,
Is being aware of the minor waves the only way to validate the larger waves? Or should the larger waves just stand out to be of value as a trader?
Snake

[Bobby]

Bob,

I"ll talk to the resident experts, but it is interesting. The problem I have is "where do I put the counts"? Why not here instead of there?

Cheers

Yes Snake, where to start?
Some say from the first listing, but others don't.

Crap hovers on this, look deep Sir.

Cheers
Bob.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Some say from the first listing, but others don't.
Bob.

Bob,
It might shock some but I'm not interested in the analysis from the dawn of time as some are. But how it can be applied as a trader would do. Now i think that is what Mr Miner does and espouses. If so how is the analysis tamed to limit the need to be right and at what juncture is it all finished and started from.
Maybe I should read his book.

I"m off to bed now.
Take care
Snake :)

[tech/a]

Snake.

Its not something you can get your head around in 10 mins or by reading a book (At least the first time).
I was similar in view to Bobby some years ago.Was just voodoo and smoke and mirrors.Couldnt for the life of me work out why a wave count would change.

Once you understand how and why they can and do alter it all fits.
THERE ARE RULES.

Its not for everyone and takes time (lots of it) to even get a handle on--- (Where I am)---even this level of proficiency is of great value to the trader with the ability to at least know where you are in a trade.

Sign up to Radges "The Chartist" for a few months---here you'll see it in action by someone who is very good at Elliot analysis---

To attempt to explain Elliot or Steidelmayer (On the thread next door) in snippets on threads doesnt and cannot do either analysis any justice.
Both are in my veiw the best "Art Forms" of analysis available to the trader.

[Nick Radge]

Snake,
There are probably 3 schools of thought; Prechter & Neely being the major two around the world and Miner. I reside with Miner as it suits me, Mags and WP use Prechter. There is no right or wrong in this, just personality type. I have studied Prechter and I have used the EWI services for 4 years and continue to do so today. I have a fairly good idea on the pro's & con's of each. There is no doubt that Prechter is the master and has brought EW so far its quite amazing. However, within his staff he has a gentleman called Jeff Kennedy who is very much a Miner trader.

My opinion is that Miner offer a more practical approach and is probably worth investigating if you're looking at it from a trading perspective. He does not need to know the larger count to generate a trade, although knowing the larger count can help when patterns are not perfectly clear. If the pattern is perfectly clear, then a trade can result as can a profit.

Take a look at the following chart - Tabcorp (TAH). There is a clear 5-wave pattern moving higher out of a base. Whether you know what the larger count is or whether you caught this move up, there is one overriding fact, and that is it will be followed by a decline and that decline will be a deep retracement, probably travelling 50.0% to 61.8% the length of the advance. This overriding fact enable a trade, regardless of the larger count. This is what Miner is about. How did we know the trend was going to terminate where it did? Again, we put the pieces of the puzzle together using a variety of methods. We had a fibonacci extension level, we had the all-time highs and more importantly we had a micro triangle that formed "under" those major highs. Experience says that such a triangle will break to the downside. When these elements align themselves with an Elliott Wave pattern, then you have a trade. Do I care what the larger pattern is for TAH? Would it have mattered? A trade is a trade. A profit is a profit.


http://img410.imageshack.us/img410/9279/tahoe0.png

[Nick Radge]

Another pertinent example is Gold. If you take a look at the Gold thread from a while back I discussed the fact that after the Jan 5 lows were made, we should see an advance of equal length as the prior one. This was an $80 move that missed by $2 - in other words very tradable. Regardless of the bigger picture, an opportunity was available.

Thanks Richkid.

[smoothjp]

Hi Guys

Some good information in this thread. I think I will pick up a copy of your book very soon Nick.

I must admit to being a new trader, however I am definitely into educating myself, and plan to read many books on this subject before trading this way.

I have not used elliott wave before but it appears to me to be a very useful way of finding trades.

On the optionetics website I found a tutorial of Tom gentile using profitsource: https://optionetics.webex.com/optionetics/k2/playback.php?FileName=http%3A//www.optionetics.com/webex/EWBreakthroughs.wrf&Rnd=0.6225000765868347

I was wondering if the results he shows (I think it was about a 67% success rate) are a reasonable expectation or if this is very much a 'best case scenario'. The reason I am partially convinced is that he has just based it on 50 stocks that best correlate with the DJIA? It just seems too easy to be true?

Also does anyone use this with platinum express? Or do you guys think that platinum express is a rip off?

It seems advanced get is $3995 and then you would need scanner too for another $1560 to have an equivalent package to that of profitsource?

Thanks guys

[Nick Radge]

Here is another example of "practical" trading without knowing the larger picture.

A 5-wave was completed up. So far the the small 3-wave has not travelled the "typical" distance, so the risk is it has not completed. Therefore yesterday's strength will probably fail and prices will continue lower. From a practical trading standpoint, any move above the wave-v would invalidate that continued bearish expectation and suggest the trend will continue. Obviously one expecting the "typical" pattern to unfiold would place a protective stop above those highs. Whether this is a larger uptrend or downtrend does not matter from a "practical" trading standpoint, there is still an opportunity. If/when prices reach the "typical" area for a correction one may then need to assess the larger picture or if one intends to trade the larger swings, then the same procedure should be applied to weekly charts.

http://www.aussiestockforums.com/images/tc/132031.png



This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information.

[theasxgorilla]

If time is corruptable due to the action of price then how does using EW achieve accurate projections?

Something else to ponder is that price is also seemingly corruptable. How?

What is price? The value at which a trade was transacted. What are trades transacted in? Currency. What do currencies do relative to one another? Shift.

This is why Prechter invented what he calls the "stable currency benchmark". To try and elliminate fluctuations in the USD from distorting wave counts on the S&P500/DJIA.

The ASX Gorilla.

[tech/a]

It seems advanced get is $3995 and then you would need scanner too for another $1560 to have an equivalent package to that of profitsource?

The EOD GET has the scanner in it.
Just bought it at $3720.

[machi]

Here is another example of "practical" trading without knowing the larger picture.

A 5-wave was completed up. So far the the small 3-wave has not travelled the "typical" distance, so the risk is it has not completed. Therefore yesterday's strength will probably fail and prices will continue lower. From a practical trading standpoint, any move above the wave-v would invalidate that continued bearish expectation and suggest the trend will continue. Obviously one expecting the "typical" pattern to unfiold would place a protective stop above those highs. Whether this is a larger uptrend or downtrend does not matter from a "practical" trading standpoint, there is still an opportunity. If/when prices reach the "typical" area for a correction one may then need to assess the larger picture or if one intends to trade the larger swings, then the same procedure should be applied to weekly charts.

http://www.aussiestockforums.com/images/tc/132031.png



This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information.


None one is disputing the fact that you can't using EW without knowing the larger picture.
But to do this correctly taking the larger picture into consideration would be desirable. Especially as it may give you some hints in terms of the magnitude of a potential moves TO COME.....

Always starting with the big picture will give you the approximate orientation of the degree of trend that you maybe looking to trade. The thing you have forgotten here is that the lasger patterns control the smaller patterns.....

Ultimately it boils down to one thing: STUDY YOUR MARKET WELL........

[tech/a]

Think the point Nick is making is that the very larger degree such as Super Cycles are not really necessary in the smaller degrees.

Nick suggests 3 degrees and I tend to agree.

There is a good reason WHY Prechter has been less than accurate with very large timeframe analysis I think.
I'll bring this up later in the Technical Analysis sister thread later.

[machi]

There is a good reason WHY Prechter has been less than accurate with very large timeframe analysis I think.
I'll bring this up later in the Technical Analysis sister thread later.

Seems to me you have little idea of what you are saying tech/a, but then again what do you expect from the un initiated...... amatuer

[tech/a]

Seems to me you have little idea of what you are saying tech/a, but then again what do you expect from the un initiated...... amatuer

Feel free to add your expertise.Constructive critisism is always helpful.If of course the quality of discussion isnt below you.
You maybe suprised by what I have to say.
Addition to the thread of expert comment is always welcomed.
Look forward to yours machi.

Your predictive analysis ability to pre empt what I'm about to say is indeed impressive.

[BentRod]

Don't forget to post charts along with your expert analysis Machi like the others do. ;)

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Tech,

Its not something you can get your head around in 10 mins or by reading a book (At least the first time).
Yes I have discovered this. :o


I was similar in view to Bobby some years ago.Was just voodoo and smoke and mirrors.Couldnt for the life of me work out why a wave count would change.
I have that view too in the past, but now I don't think so.


Once you understand how and why they can and do alter it all fits.
THERE ARE RULES.

Its not for everyone and takes time (lots of it) to even get a handle on--- (Where I am)---even this level of proficiency is of great value to the trader with the ability to at least know where you are in a trade.

It's the projections I am interested in.

Thanks
Snake

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Snake,
There are probably 3 schools of thought; Prechter & Neely being the major two around the world and Miner. I reside with Miner as it suits me, Mags and WP use Prechter. There is no right or wrong in this, just personality type. I have studied Prechter and I have used the EWI services for 4 years and continue to do so today. I have a fairly good idea on the pro's & con's of each. There is no doubt that Prechter is the master and has brought EW so far its quite amazing. However, within his staff he has a gentleman called Jeff Kennedy who is very much a Miner trader.

My opinion is that Miner offer a more practical approach and is probably worth investigating if you're looking at it from a trading perspective. He does not need to know the larger count to generate a trade, although knowing the larger count can help when patterns are not perfectly clear. If the pattern is perfectly clear, then a trade can result as can a profit.
Take a look at the following chart - Tabcorp (TAH). There is a clear 5-wave pattern moving higher out of a base. Whether you know what the larger count is or whether you caught this move up, there is one overriding fact, and that is it will be followed by a decline and that decline will be a deep retracement, probably travelling 50.0% to 61.8% the length of the advance. This overriding fact enable a trade, regardless of the larger count. This is what Miner is about. How did we know the trend was going to terminate where it did? Again, we put the pieces of the puzzle together using a variety of methods. We had a fibonacci extension level, we had the all-time highs and more importantly we had a micro triangle that formed "under" those major highs. Experience says that such a triangle will break to the downside. When these elements align themselves with an Elliott Wave pattern, then you have a trade. Do I care what the larger pattern is for TAH? Would it have mattered? A trade is a trade. A profit is a profit.


http://img410.imageshack.us/img410/9279/tahoe0.png

Thanks Nick that was some info I was after.
As long as the micro waves indicate a trading signal - pattern approaching - that is all that matters? the larger waves could be used to confirm?

Snake

[tech/a]

Snake.

Your either an insomniac,shift worker or live in Antarctica.
You post at the most diverse times!

On larger timeframes.
They do let you know where you are in the overall move of the instrument being traded.
IE an end of a wave 5 which is the end of a wave 3 in a higher timeframe.
Hence you would be looking for a wave 1 entry in a final wave 5 in a higher timeframe.
confluence of projections is of great importance.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Something else to ponder is that price is also seemingly corruptable. How?

What is price? The value at which a trade was transacted. What are trades transacted in? Currency. What do currencies do relative to one another? Shift.

This is why Prechter invented what he calls the "stable currency benchmark". To try and elliminate fluctuations in the USD from distorting wave counts on the S&P500/DJIA.

The ASX Gorilla.

Interesting :)

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Feel free to add your expertise.Constructive critisism is always helpful.If of course the quality of discussion isnt below you.
You maybe suprised by what I have to say.
Addition to the thread of expert comment is always welcomed.
Look forward to yours machi.

Your predictive analysis ability to pre empt what I'm about to say is indeed impressive.

I agree with Tech Machi. Your expertise would be appreciated.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Snake.

Your either an insomniac,shift worker or live in Antarctica.
You post at the most diverse times!

On larger timeframes.
They do let you know where you are in the overall move of the instrument being traded.
IE an end of a wave 5 which is the end of a wave 3 in a higher timeframe.
Hence you would be looking for a wave 1 entry in a final wave 5 in a higher timeframe.
confluence of projections is of great importance.

Ha,ha,
Yes insomniac for sure. I can't go to bed before 2am (Japan- 2hours behind), then even that is a struggle. I work part-time usually 5 until 9pm get home after 10 pm then analyse and unwind etc. I wake up after the open and usually focus on the afternoon session or set orders the night before. I am now looking at using my night time to trade FOREX so a lot of chart watching while chatting on ASF. Morning Forex Australian time is not too profitable compared to the Japan, European sessions, and American morning sessions. So I am trying to use my time to the best of my ability incorporating that insomnia into it.

Once a great man suffered a life of insomnia and to beat it he did things instead of laying in bed thinking about it. I am begininng to employ his way of thinking. So EW is now consuming some of my time.

Thanks for that comment on the different timeframes.
Snake

[Kauri]

I am only starting out in E/W and have so far found that projections are usefull when different degree wave projections coincide giving you an approximate area where trend change is likely. Combined with a confirming reversal pattern and/or volume characteristics it can give you an early entry point in a trend change or warning to tighten stops. Time projections I have so far found less reliable, possibly as I have not delved too deeply into them.
Entered short into a trade this morning on 3 price wave 5 coinciding and a reversal pattern forming. Time will tell if it works out as planned.

[machi]

Feel free to add your expertise.Constructive critisism is always helpful. If of course the quality of discussion isn’t below you.
You maybe surprised by what I have to say.
Addition to the thread of expert comment is always welcomed.
Look forward to yours machi.

Your predictive analysis ability to pre empt what I'm about to say is indeed impressive.

You truly live up to your reputation as bird brain as per your avatar tech/a.......
Sometimes I get the feeling you and Radge must be have a bit of a deal running.

Re your comments regarding Prechter in the "What is Technical Analysis" thread, one word: Garbage. You are obviously echoing Radges opinion here because you would not be smart enough to have done your own investigations.

Prechter has a big reputation and already has the runs on the board unlike yourself and Radge. I have lost count over the years how many accurate forecasts Prechter has made. Covering a multitude of markets lasting 30 years. These have ranged from predicting the bullmarket of the 1980’s 2 years before it actually started(giving precise targets and timeframe to go with it ), not to mention when it would end(1.5 weeks before it did-1987 crash) Gold peak in 1980 almost to the day, the DJIA and Nasdaq, peaks in 2000, and the ensuing bear markets just to name a few.(Just check out Timers Digest) Sure he got the Deflationary crash scenario wrong in the 1990’s and 2002, but making long term forecasts is very hard.

He is "Mr Elliott Wave" and was the one responsible for reviving the idea from obscurity 30 years ago when there were but a few "closet" practioners such as Frost, Collins and Bolton. The guy can trade too, winning the US trading championship in 1984 and breaking the record doing it. Other EW practioners are not in the same class both as forecasters or traders. Most traders like you have no idea how to trade the market in the short term let alone the longer term. You are just full of dribble. You’re a nutter Tech/a. You are getting worse too, maybe the market is making you this way?? Perhaps you lost too much $$$ in the last few weeks?? Perhaps TT is not all that it’s cracked up to be??


Now if someone out there really wanted to learn the nuts and bolts of Elliott what would you do?? Listen the “guru” like tech/a??? Think hard people, I think it would be much wiser to go to the experts, don’t ya think?? Don’t let the likes of Tech/a bluff you into otherwise. >>>>>>>>>

[Porper]

You truly live up to your reputation as bird brain as per your avatar tech/a.......
Sometimes I get the feeling you and Radge must be have a bit of a deal running.

Re your comments regarding Prechter in the "What is Technical Analysis" thread, one word: Garbage. You are obviously echoing Radges opinion here because you would not be smart enough to have done your own investigations.

Prechter has a big reputation and already has the runs on the board unlike yourself and Radge. I have lost count over the years how many accurate forecasts Prechter has made. Covering a multitude of markets lasting 30 years. These have ranged from predicting the bullmarket of the 1980’s 2 years before it actually started(giving precise targets and timeframe to go with it ), not to mention when it would end(1.5 weeks before it did-1987 crash) Gold peak in 1980 almost to the day, the DJIA and Nasdaq, peaks in 2000, and the ensuing bear markets just to name a few.(Just check out Timers Digest) Sure he got the Deflationary crash scenario wrong in the 1990’s and 2002, but making long term forecasts is very hard.

He is "Mr Elliott Wave" and was the one responsible for reviving the idea from obscurity 30 years ago when there were but a few "closet" practioners such as Frost, Collins and Bolton. The guy can trade too, winning the US trading championship in 1984 and breaking the record doing it. Other EW practioners are not in the same class both as forecasters or traders. Most traders like you have no idea how to trade the market in the short term let alone the longer term. You are just full of dribble. You’re a nutter Tech/a. You are getting worse too, maybe the market is making you this way?? Perhaps you lost too much $$$ in the last few weeks?? Perhaps TT is not all that it’s cracked up to be??


Now if someone out there really wanted to learn the nuts and bolts of Elliott what would you do?? Listen the “guru” like tech/a??? Think hard people, I think it would be much wiser to go to the experts, don’t ya think?? Don’t let the likes of Tech/a bluff you into otherwise. >>>>>>>>>

Machi,

You are doing yourself no favours by being so antagonistic.If you have something to offer by way of your expertise, then please share.

Tech has always said he is a beginner like a lot of us here.

Nick Radge isn't a beginner, and it takes the biscuit you trying to say he isn't any good.I'm pretty sure you aren't a member of the Chartist so you are in no position to judge how proficient he or any of us are at Elliot wave for that matter.

Try giving something rather than ridiculing everybody.

[theasxgorilla]

Prechter has a big reputation and already has the runs on the board unlike yourself and Radge. I have lost count over the years how many accurate forecasts Prechter has made.

I used to be an Elliott Wave International subscriber.

I think that Prechter is brilliant. But lets get somethings straight. He's a theorist. Yes, I know what you want to say. "Oh, but he won that trading championship with a record 444% return in 5 months". Yeah, he did. But have you seen the FNN interview with him after that? I reckon it nearly killed him. He practically confessed to burning himself out. My guess is that trading (practicing) is not Prechters modus operandi.

So in response to your question about going to an expert, I don't think I'd recommend people who want to become EW practitioners modelling themselves on Prechter. The man sat on the sidelines during the greatest bull run in recorded history. I don't see how that mentality helps a trader.

[tech/a]

You truly live up to your reputation as bird brain as per your avatar tech/a.......
Sometimes I get the feeling you and Radge must be have a bit of a deal running.

Re your comments regarding Prechter in the "What is Technical Analysis" thread, one word: Garbage. You are obviously echoing Radges opinion here because you would not be smart enough to have done your own investigations.

No not so.But believe as you wish.

But on Radge.
He is liciensed by ASIC. Ive met him he is straight as a die,pulls no punches,Not a great lover of Duck,knows his stuff and made me a lot of $$$s from his teachings and MUSINGS.
Thats how I've found him and as such I'll give credit where its due, best value Ive seen by a country mile.

I'll repeat that---Radge doesnt like DUCK


Prechter has a big reputation and already has the runs on the board unlike yourself and Radge. I have lost count over the years how many accurate forecasts Prechter has made. Covering a multitude of markets lasting 30 years. These have ranged from predicting the bullmarket of the 1980’s 2 years before it actually started(giving precise targets and timeframe to go with it ), not to mention when it would end(1.5 weeks before it did-1987 crash) Gold peak in 1980 almost to the day, the DJIA and Nasdaq, peaks in 2000, and the ensuing bear markets just to name a few.(Just check out Timers Digest) Sure he got the Deflationary crash scenario wrong in the 1990’s and 2002, but making long term forecasts is very hard.

He is "Mr Elliott Wave" and was the one responsible for reviving the idea from obscurity 30 years ago when there were but a few "closet" practioners such as Frost, Collins and Bolton. The guy can trade too, winning the US trading championship in 1984 and breaking the record doing it. Other EW practioners are not in the same class both as forecasters or traders.

Agree in most part Prechters developed Elliot way beyond its beginnings.Dont know what all the fuss is about!
I'm certainly not in the league of Prechter and not close to Radge.


Most traders like you have no idea how to trade the market in the short term let alone the longer term. You are just full of dribble. You’re a nutter Tech/a. You are getting worse too, maybe the market is making you this way?? Perhaps you lost too much $$$ in the last few weeks?? Perhaps TT is not all that it’s cracked up to be??

In your opinion --fine.T/T will no doubt encounter market conditions outside that which it was designed on.At which time it will be re evaluated. T/T was never meant to be the "Mother" of all systems and was initialised in the hope it would help others taking the same path.---its done its job--still is.
Sure Ive lost some open profit---no big deal its just part of business.



Now if someone out there really wanted to learn the nuts and bolts of Elliott what would you do?? Listen the “guru” like tech/a??? Think hard people, I think it would be much wiser to go to the experts, don’t ya think?? Don’t let the likes of Tech/a bluff you into otherwise. >>>>>>>>>

Agree whole heartedly,the only "Teaching" I have done is a very brief general description for Julia who made the request directly.I have and will continue to demonstrate to the best of my ability aspects of Elliot which I find/have found useful.I'll say it again.
I'm no expert I have an understanding of Elliot.

machi
Why not add to the community?
Look forward to some of your findings.

Must Duck off to the bird Bath. ;)

[TheRage]

Machi I think perhaps Tech was being very generous responding to your venom dripped banter. Perhaps you could convey you points with a little more sugar to them. By the way I have no value to add here as I am a fundamentalist. I would however like someones opinion on the wave count on the ASX 200. If this has been done I appologise for my inability to use the search function.

[machi]

I used to be an Elliott Wave International subscriber.
I reckon it nearly killed him. He practically confessed to burning himself out. My guess is that trading (practicing) is not Prechters modus operandi.

Yes your right it did burn him out, and he has openly said that (given that he did it part-time, it would most people), he also said that given the number of trades he made, he paid just as much in commisions as he made in profit. In other words it wasn't worth it..........

However he has also said out of necessity, if required, he would trade. As for sitting through bullmarket, fair enough. Elliotticians make mistakes, they also make stunning forecasts and trades. The bear market that followed the bull he called very well. The correction we have just had (in the last 2 weeks) was called very well, (which more than yourself, tech and others have done. (Apart from Magdoran of course)



So in response to your question about going to an expert, I don't think I'd recommend people who want to become EW practitioners modelling themselves on Prechter. The man sat on the sidelines during the greatest bull run in recorded history. I don't see how that mentality helps a trader


Knowing that in advance why would did you bother subscribing in the first place?
You obviously didn't learn much from your subscription did you?

[IFocus]

You truly live up to your reputation as bird brain as per your avatar tech/a.......
Sometimes I get the feeling you and Radge must be have a bit of a deal running.

Re your comments regarding Prechter in the "What is Technical Analysis" thread, one word: Garbage. You are obviously echoing Radges opinion here because you would not be smart enough to have done your own investigations.



Knowing that in advance why would did you bother subscribing in the first place?
You obviously didn't learn much from your subscription did you?


Hi Machi

I sincerely hope you do not take that emotional stance into the market

Kind Regards
Focus

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Machi,

If you have anything to add other than quoting and attacking feel free.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I am only starting out in E/W and have so far found that projections are usefull when different degree wave projections coincide giving you an approximate area where trend change is likely. Combined with a confirming reversal pattern and/or volume characteristics it can give you an early entry point in a trend change or warning to tighten stops. Time projections I have so far found less reliable, possibly as I have not delved too deeply into them.
Entered short into a trade this morning on 3 price wave 5 coinciding and a reversal pattern forming. Time will tell if it works out as planned.

Kauri,

Who is your influence with regard to EW?
Prechter or Miner or someone else maybe?

With regard to the corruption of time by price what are your thoughts on it?

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Elliot wave is supposed to be a study of psychology, specifically greed. Therefore it's very subjective. If you could gauge the level of confidence/sentiment, you'd probably do better at labelling the wave counts yourself. I also find using advanced get troublesome and would rarely use it.

It seems to stand out with all TA that is subjective and open to interpretation. The post answered one question I had for the experts here.

Don't mind my critique here but it helps me think. :)

[It's Snake Pliskin]

A book I'm reading (Dynamic Trading by Miner) says Elliott Wave is only useful 50% of the time. Or rather Elliott Wave can only be applied about 50% of the time, and pretty much only the basic impulse and ABC correction is useful for trading. The author doesn't recommend EW software since they try to apply an EW count all of the time on anything, when there won't always be one, or one with any practical value.

I've been to a Profit Source seminar BTW, a few years ago. They also advocated EW back then. The strategy they suggested was shorting ABC corrections after the software had counted a five wave impulse.

Interesting coments swingstar. How have you found EW to trade with since reading the book?

[It's Snake Pliskin]

None one is disputing the fact that you can't using EW without knowing the larger picture.
But to do this correctly taking the larger picture into consideration would be desirable. Especially as it may give you some hints in terms of the magnitude of a potential moves TO COME.....

Always starting with the big picture will give you the approximate orientation of the degree of trend that you maybe looking to trade. The thing you have forgotten here is that the lasger patterns control the smaller patterns.....

Ultimately it boils down to one thing: STUDY YOUR MARKET WELL........

Machi,
Would going back to the monthly for example be far enough to trade the daily once confirmation of the monthly, weekly and daily waves show something tradable? Is this what you mean?

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Final questions:

With using EW what aspects do you practitioners find:

subjective?
objective?
destructive?
most difficult?
easy?
essential?


I am looking for some opinions to help my understanding of the above.

Thanks
Snake :)

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Final questions:

With using EW what aspects do you practitioners find:

subjective?
objective?
destructive?
most difficult?
easy?
essential?


I am looking for some opinions to help my understanding of the above.

Thanks
Snake :)

I'll take it elsewhere.

[theasxgorilla]

Final questions:

With using EW what aspects do you practitioners find:

subjective?
objective?
destructive?
most difficult?
easy?
essential?


I am looking for some opinions to help my understanding of the above.

Thanks
Snake :)

{applying armour}

My opinion only, of course:


Subjective; almost all of it...particularly higher degree wave counts, like in the super cycle ranges.

Objective; the rules and guidelines. But there are literally so many of these that practioners vary in their interpretation of where the current price action is. Consider the list at this link (http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/9807/Charts/SP500-Articles/EWRules.htm) if you need convincing.

Destructive; people who emerse themselves in Elliott Wave can become dizzy with the whole predictability element. They think that due to the apparently fractal nature that they can take what is working well for them on daily, or hourly charts and zoom out to a super cycle and grand super cycle perspective and start plotting the future of mankind. This is uber destructive because it taints the perspective of the analyst/practioner (IMO). If you trade in a trend-following style it is dangerous to keep calling for this wave or that to come next. It is, after all, trend following.

Easy; finding wave counts (in hindsight) on daily or hourly charts.

Essential; to be prepared to say, "there isn't a count here right now"...then try something else, or walk away. You don't NEED EW to trade a trend. But if you are presented with two trades and in one of them you can identify a wave 3 of 3, then perhaps at your discretion you decide that one has a higher probability of success.

[motorway]

Too much money is lost and too much money is missed
for two simple reasons: One, trying to predict the
future, and two, fearing the future.


George F. King


motorway

[wavepicker]

Final questions:

With using EW what aspects do you practitioners find:

subjective?
objective?
destructive?
most difficult?
easy?
essential?


I am looking for some opinions to help my understanding of the above.

Thanks
Snake :)

Snake, my response to your questions will be very different to the Gorillas. It seems to me he has failed to grasp EW fully. I respectfully disagree with a lot of his opinions here. I am not trying to convince anyone to adopt EW, but I have found this method of TA (along with others) very very useful in my 10 years of trading and applying it. This may not necessarily mean it is for you though.

Subjective: Very much so, but I don't know a TA method that isn't. Trading the market is about assessing probabilities and analysing risk/reward. For me the subjectiveness is greatly reduced as all my alternate wave counts are quantified one by one, either by analysing the pattern of the trend or other proprietary techniques which I will not mention at this stage.

Objective: Of all the TA techniques I have used this would have to be the most objective. Irrespective of what others say there are very few Rules(only 3 of them) and equally as many guidelines. There are however other intricacies that can only be learnt through personal experience and that depends on how you view the market. There can be ambiguities as there are in all TA methods. But if there appears to be ambiguities, well just find another market to trade that doesn’t show ambiguities. Alternatively, use other methods to quantify.

Destructive: Any method itself is not destructive. The practitioners themselves and their psychology is what is self destructive.

Most Difficult: That depends on the individual and if they are comfortable with using it.

Easy: In terms of counting waves. All you need to know is count to 5. Understanding how the market moves, the pattern of the trend and repeatable patterns, this is more difficult, but with enough persistence and commitment fully within the grasp of anyone.

Essential: Absolutely Not. It is like any other for of TA a tool to be used at the right time if the opportunity presents itself. The key is not to try and apply it all the time and in any market such as illiquid stocks. Personally I like to use it on Indexes, Currencies, and Commodities or any other very liquid market. Application on any stock in any market all the time, may not yield the desirable results.



EW analysis is above all a theory. Many just read a text on EW such as Frost and Prechter, go out applying their knowledge for a short while only to fail miserably. Like any form of TA, this method takes work and effort (perhaps years of it) to fully understand and grasp.


Where most practioners fall over is that they place too much emphasis on counting alone without paying as much attention to the patterns and minutia that are developing within the pattern of the trend. Attempting to count an impulse is much easier than a correction, but if one has an open mind to all the probabilities and possibilities, in the large these are not a problem. Also most pratitioners fail to even think about the hard right side of the charts and the types of patterns that are most likely to follow a pattern that has just completed. Above all in EW the key is the pattern, and the probable pattern that is likely to flow from that pattern and not necessarily the count all the time
Using EW in isolation I would say I have the correct count 60-65% of the time for either impulsion or correction. Coupling it with other forms of analysis such as my own Cycles Analysis it is more like 70-75%, whereby the alternate counts are reduced dramatically.

Elliott Analysis can be applied succesfully, this can be evidenced by the many succesfull practioners and forecasts on this site alone. But in the end it's up to you to find your own path to succesfully using it, if that is the direction you seek.

Hope this helps

[IFocus]

* Subjective; almost all of it...particularly higher degree wave counts, like in the super cycle ranges.
* Objective; the rules and guidelines. But there are literally so many of these that practioners vary in their interpretation of where the current price action is. Consider the list at this link if you need convincing.
* Destructive; people who emerse themselves in Elliott Wave can become dizzy with the whole predictability element. They think that due to the apparently fractal nature that they can take what is working well for them on daily, or hourly charts and zoom out to a super cycle and grand super cycle perspective and start plotting the future of mankind. This is uber destructive because it taints the perspective of the analyst/practioner (IMO). If you trade in a trend-following style it is dangerous to keep calling for this wave or that to come next. It is, after all, trend following.
* Easy; finding wave counts (in hindsight) on daily or hourly charts.
* Essential; to be prepared to say, "there isn't a count here right now"...then try something else, or walk away. You don't NEED EW to trade a trend. But if you are presented with two trades and in one of them you can identify a wave 3 of 3, then perhaps at your discretion you decide that one has a higher probability of success.

Gorilla I see what you see good comment a couple of your points go to the heart of trading not just EW.


Wavepicker thanks for your posts.
This is my second time that I have looked at using EW and its been quite clear this time around. This brought the question why didn’t it appear so the 1st time?

A question for you is do you have an idea on how much of other areas of trading like price action, patterns etc that you have internalized and apply in addition to EW?

Focus

[wavepicker]

A question for you is do you have an idea on how much of other areas of trading like price action, patterns etc that you have internalized and apply in addition to EW?

Focus

Probably an equal amount IFocus. Now it's just routine. I look at a chart(many times I don't even look at the company name!!) and I look for certain EW pattern traits that I have become familiar with. For example a pattern/chart has to exhibit the "right look" and then I consider it.

ASX Gorilla mentioned that wave counts were always right in hindsight. I ask him this, what it wrong with that? When I see a completed wave count, it automatically registers in my brain that a wave or a pattern may have completed and a trend is at risk of ending. Thereafter one can look at the probabilities of types of patterns/moves that are likely to follow.

As mentioned in the earlier post, the key is the pattern.

It's all about:-

-finding when fast moves are about to take place following the completions of certain patterns such as Ending Diagonals, contracting triangle and the like.

-finding those 3rd wave moves (the 1-2,1-2,1-2 moves)

These are the bread and butter of EW analysis

Cheers

[tech/a]

Waves,

Excellent explaination which can only be delivered in the way it has by a long term Practitioner.

IFocus,
I find the more I try to apply it (Correctly or incorrectly as a few are good enough to point out) The clearer the patterns and the counts become---or more so the repetitive nature of them.


But if there appears to be ambiguities, well just find another market to trade that doesn’t show ambiguities. Alternatively, use other methods to quantify.

An important observation/fact.

[theasxgorilla]

ASX Gorilla mentioned that wave counts were always right in hindsight. I ask him this, what it wrong with that? When I see a completed wave count, it automatically registers in my brain that a wave or a pattern may have completed and a trend is at risk of ending.

Lets requote the context and what was actually said.

What is easy? I answered; "finding wave counts on daily and hours charts". I suspect you have taken the tone of my post (purposely leaning slightly away from Elliott Wave as the be-all-and-end-all) and presumed that my message was something different than what it was.

If you re-read my post, then re-read your post, you may actually find (as I do) that we're saying many of the same things.

[wavepicker]

Lets requote the context and what was actually said.

What is easy? I answered; "finding wave counts on daily and hours charts". I suspect you have taken the tone of my post (purposely leaning slightly away from Elliott Wave as the be-all-and-end-all) and presumed that my message was something different than what it was.

If you re-read my post, then re-read your post, you may actually find (as I do) that we're saying many of the same things.


fair enough Gorilla,

we agree then??


For the sake of Snakes question however I would like to present some real time analysis of the DJIA (1hr bars). These are series of charts that were marked up myself in the last week. The charts were updated every few days. No hindsight analysis here of any kind.
We had a completed pattern to the downside( an impulse ) This pattern was not easy to count by the average EW practitioner. Why?? Because they are looking for a too simplistic a pattern. We got a (simple) clean impulse down then we got one more 'unorthodox" low. That would have been enough to confuse most practioners there and then and most would think the whole move down was corrective. The impulse down, subdivided into 1-2,1-2,1-2, just before the point of recogntion or wave 3. Wave 4 (green) was a sideways move, which was the biggest clue that trend was at risk of ending in the subdivisions that would follow.

-The first chart was pointing to an imminant rally, because we had the 5 wave move down followed by a 3 wave move up (green a) followed by 3 waves down again (green b). This means only one type of move can follow -an impulse for green wave c of an irregular flat correction. This is when it's handy to know all the possible types of correction other than zigzag. Wave c's of an irregular flat are quite strong and this has resulted in a healthy rally. Notice I had marked up waves 1 and 2(blue of the developing impulse up) just before blue wave 3 was about to start, or the higher low. That was the time to go long this instrument

-The second Chart I updated up on the 12th march. It shows how the pattern has progressed and how I expected the pattern to resolve. So far so good.

- The 3rd chart was updated a few mins ago. So this pattern perhaps has almost finished or close to finishing?? Maybe it might continue bullishly too, dunno??
My point is, does it matter? The whole point of the trade was to enter the blue 3rd wave of the expected impulse wave C(green) of larger wave 2 (red). This was a descent rally. After all wave 3's are the bread and butter.

We had a completed pattern that was high probability, from here a list of possibilities can be quantified to take a possible trade.

Will be interesting to see what happens from here but I suspect this is a crucial juncture coming up

[tech/a]

Now THATS the sort of quality analysis and explaination which adds volumes to the/any discussion.

[moses]

So (forgive me for being thick) the bottom line is that Elliot says we should don our parachutes?

PS. some headlines on Google news:

"Asian shares close mostly lower on caution ahead of US data release"

"London shares fall midmorning off lows; UK hedge fund collapse ..."

"BURSA MALAYSIA: Shares Ease On Profit-taking"

"Qantas shares fall on buyout opposition concerns"

[It's Snake Pliskin]

{applying armour}

My opinion only, of course:


Subjective; almost all of it...particularly higher degree wave counts, like in the super cycle ranges.

Objective; the rules and guidelines. But there are literally so many of these that practioners vary in their interpretation of where the current price action is. Consider the list at this link (http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/9807/Charts/SP500-Articles/EWRules.htm) if you need convincing.

Destructive; people who emerse themselves in Elliott Wave can become dizzy with the whole predictability element. They think that due to the apparently fractal nature that they can take what is working well for them on daily, or hourly charts and zoom out to a super cycle and grand super cycle perspective and start plotting the future of mankind. This is uber destructive because it taints the perspective of the analyst/practioner (IMO). If you trade in a trend-following style it is dangerous to keep calling for this wave or that to come next. It is, after all, trend following.

Easy; finding wave counts (in hindsight) on daily or hourly charts.

Essential; to be prepared to say, "there isn't a count here right now"...then try something else, or walk away. You don't NEED EW to trade a trend. But if you are presented with two trades and in one of them you can identify a wave 3 of 3, then perhaps at your discretion you decide that one has a higher probability of success.


ASXGorilla,
Thank you for your response. It is much appreciated. :) I am happy now.

Regarding the part in red is that not subjective due to interpretation of the practitioners?

Yes finding wave counts even in hindsight seems difficult for me.

Have you traded using EW to some extent in the past? If so why do you not use it now if that is the case?

Regards
Snake

[It's Snake Pliskin]

wavepicker,


Snake, my response to your questions will be very different to the Gorillas. It seems to me he has failed to grasp EW fully. I respectfully disagree with a lot of his opinions here. I am not trying to convince anyone to adopt EW, but I have found this method of TA (along with others) very very useful in my 10 years of trading and applying it. This may not necessarily mean it is for you though.
Thanks for the time to contribute wavepicker. :)


Subjective: Very much so, but I don't know a TA method that isn't. Trading the market is about assessing probabilities and analysing risk/reward. For me the subjectiveness is greatly reduced as all my alternate wave counts are quantified one by one, either by analysing the pattern of the trend or other proprietary techniques which I will not mention at this stage.


Objective: Of all the TA techniques I have used this would have to be the most objective. Irrespective of what others say there are very few Rules(only 3 of them) and equally as many guidelines. There are however other intricacies that can only be learnt through personal experience and that depends on how you view the market. There can be ambiguities as there are in all TA methods. But if there appears to be ambiguities, well just find another market to trade that doesn’t show ambiguities. Alternatively, use other methods to quantify.
So the market, stock, etc will display the objective nature of EW. If it doesn't it may be subjective application to something that will not display it.


Destructive: Any method itself is not destructive. The practitioners themselves and their psychology is what is self destructive.

Most Difficult: That depends on the individual and if they are comfortable with using it.

Easy: In terms of counting waves. All you need to know is count to 5. Understanding how the market moves, the pattern of the trend and repeatable patterns, this is more difficult, but with enough persistence and commitment fully within the grasp of anyone.

Essential: Absolutely Not. It is like any other for of TA a tool to be used at the right time if the opportunity presents itself. The key is not to try and apply it all the time and in any market such as illiquid stocks. Personally I like to use it on Indexes, Currencies, and Commodities or any other very liquid market. Application on any stock in any market all the time, may not yield the desirable results.


EW analysis is above all a theory. Many just read a text on EW such as Frost and Prechter, go out applying their knowledge for a short while only to fail miserably. Like any form of TA, this method takes work and effort (perhaps years of it) to fully understand and grasp.
Yes the lazy never succeed at anything. I am picking it to pieces to hopefully understand the nuances. I am trying to understand the theory and its objective application.


Where most practioners fall over is that they place too much emphasis on counting alone without paying as much attention to the patterns and minutia that are developing within the pattern of the trend. Attempting to count an impulse is much easier than a correction, but if one has an open mind to all the probabilities and possibilities, in the large these are not a problem. Also most pratitioners fail to even think about the hard right side of the charts and the types of patterns that are most likely to follow a pattern that has just completed. Above all in EW the key is the pattern, and the probable pattern that is likely to flow from that pattern and not necessarily the count all the time
Using EW in isolation I would say I have the correct count 60-65% of the time for either impulsion or correction. Coupling it with other forms of analysis such as my own Cycles Analysis it is more like 70-75%, whereby the alternate counts are reduced dramatically.

Elliott Analysis can be applied succesfully, this can be evidenced by the many succesfull practioners and forecasts on this site alone. But in the end it's up to you to find your own path to succesfully using it, if that is the direction you seek.

Hope this helps

Thank you again Wavepicker for an insightful post. I shall consume this for a while.
Regards
Snake :)

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Now THATS the sort of quality analysis and explaination which adds volumes to the/any discussion.
I totally agree Tech. Seeing the work of pros using EW is humbling.
Wave look at the smily I have placed here: :bowdown:

[motorway]

The more I look at EW the more I think My answer would be NO..

( But early days here yet for Me , So just some discussion )

Wyckoff stated that one of the important realizations to have about markets
Was the fact that price moves in waves..

That waves operate across all time frames.

But that 4 time frames were most significant

That these time frames were best defined by the % move they made than slices of time.

That large waves built themselves from smaller waves .

But that in a more meaningful way causation ran from larger to smaller time frames...

The thing that creates the waves is demand and supply creating a following...

following = volume.. Waves emerge from trading ranges
where ownership sentiment and contingency are crystalized..

Waves last as long as they have a following
Volume is a key metric
We look for waves taking form gathering strength We look for the other side the other force building We look for the end of waves.
And the contrary motion ( Like Heraclitus's Enantiodromia )

"The best indication of a stocks future action is it's current action in context "


Waves are a Dynamic process that No one can predict. But can be anticipated

I see David Weis ( a significant figure in EW and Wyckoff ) makes some interesting comments on this in Elders recent book...


Here is the full quote from George King ( A significant past figure in Wyckoff )

In Nick Radges book He shows a chart of CBA There are strong waves up.
He calls the pattern undefined because there is No EW pattern

This is David Weis's point

A static pattern is being put onto a dynamic process

I feel too many good opportunities will not fit the EW pattern like CBA

If demand and supply creates a following and a wave
That is all We need to know We have tools then to measure the strength
preservation and to anticipate turning points..

If an EW pattern does emerge IT has to be demand and supply that builds it

So why go past demand and supply and restrict our universe and miss real signals and real opportunity ?



Always keep in mind we are not forecasting the market.
Mr. Wyckoff in His text pays most of his attention to
what the market is doing rather than trying to predict
what the market may or will do in the future. In a
number of places in the text, Mr. Wyckoff states
specifically that the trend is the most important
thing. For example,
Mr. Wyckoff says:

“The trend is the line of least resistance. It is the
most important thing to know about the market or an
individual stock.”

Just above this ... in the same page, he says:

“The purpose of a trend chart is to enable you to keep
in harmony with the trend.”

Notice it doesn’t say ‘the purpose of a trend chart is
to predict the future.’ Its purpose is just to keep
you in harmony with the trend.

I am impressed with Mr. Wyckoff’s use of the word
‘the,’ as in the trend. This is the present tense use
and I am convinced that students having trouble in the
market either in taking a position at the wrong time
or in fearing to take a position at the right time are
troubled by the fact that they are trying to predict
the future. I am also convinced that anyone who
really wants to make money in the market will do two
things: First, he will determine major accumulation.
That is, he will detect when major accumulation is
underway. And second, he will take his positions in
line with the trend of the market and not try to
predict the future of the market, but just try and
stay in harmony with that trend. And, that is the
basic purpose of determining technical positions.

Too much money is lost and too much money is missed
for two simple reasons: One, trying to predict the
future, and two, fearing the future.


George F. King

Determining Technical Positions

Wyckoff Was a tape reader
Which He defined as determining the future course of the market from it's current action Now..

He was before price patterns and indicators and EW
All that I would think are the cart before the horse

They are things built from demand and supply
They are shadow artifacts

They are Not demand and supply themselves

Prices move in waves small waves build into larger waves
They last as long as they have a following, Volume = following
All the time a contrary movement builds..

Yes there will be 1,2,3 yes there will be 4 and 5 then a b c

But there will be anything else as well

All markets are manipulated

The ores of manipulation are routine and habit

The mechanical , The static

Real time is fluid ... Everything real has a broken rhythm.

It is not that a market breaches a trend line or makes a pattern
But HOW it does so and How it came to the juncture... In the How is where the intent is..



motorway

[coyotte]

A Query on EW

On long term Charts eg : 12 mths + , are Nor or Log settings used ?

If for example W5 is supposed to be around the same movement price wise as W1 is this referring to $$$ or %%% .

Over a 12 month or longer period surely a Nor chart could be very misleading .


Cheers :confused:

[motorway]

A Query on EW

On long term Charts eg : 12 mths + , are Nor or Log settings used ?

If for example W5 is supposed to be around the same movement price wise as W1 is this referring to $$$ or %%% .

Over a 12 month or longer period surely a Nor chart could be very misleading .


Cheers :confused:

Look here:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/russo/2006/1115.html

motorway

[coyotte]

Thanks for the link --- so inflation's the key!

[Kauri]

Look here:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/russo/2006/1115.html

motorway

Interesting labelling....


Everyone seems to get hung up on using E/W to predict price targets, I guess it may be a hangover from Edwards and Magee, Bulkowski, Guppy etc teaching specific price targets derived from patterns. In my trading at least E/W is used to identify a trend and establish my current position in the trend. Possible pivot point areas via Fibonacci application are not signals for entry/exit, rather they are warning signs that a change may be imminent that requires confirmation. Be that a vindicator, candle pattern, volume characteristics or tarot cards.
Coyotte, how would Guppy handle his trend trading channels in log scale??

[coyotte]

He doesn't that I'm aware of.

Guppy's mainly 3- 10 days with patterns and targets or around a month with GMMA's.

GMMA's can be used for longer terms but Guppy's basically about turnover.

Guppy's advice on trend lines though is the points of reaction and new trend lines for short term trend changes. eg: points where trader's activity starts, within the current trend --- you can also pick this with GMMAs - eg: Traders start, back off -- then start again -- intros enter and target traders leave.

Cheers

[Kauri]

Coyotte,
As you can see in the charts from Motorways linked article the E/W waves are still there, the only thing that changes is the price actions percieved position relative to the channells. Once again the channells are used to predict termination points for the waves, seems there is a prediliction for prediction, in my view not really necessary.
Cheers
Kauri

[coyotte]

Apart from the Waves are EW patterns different to the run of the mill T/A patterns or do you use traditional patterns along with the Waves?

The reason I like Guppy's Target Trading methods is much the same as EW rules I suppose -- SP either does or it doesn't --- when you reach a Guppy Target that's it you're out and into a new trade, what happens to the SP from that point on is not your concern -- you've sold the item as any retailer would do.


Cheers

[coyotte]

Appears you answered my question before I posted it Kauri.

Thanks

[Kauri]

Coyotte,
I traded triangles, flags, cups etc before E/W. Have found that by identifying where they are located in the trend helps make a discretionary decision on whether to trade or not. Have also used E/W trend position to let my profits (when I have some) run as opposed to having a set target.
Cheers
Kauri

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Doc doing the same and havent had a chance to see how Nicks charts have performed.

He has been studying Elliot intensly since 96 I believe and from what I see very good at labeling the legs.
Elliot is a very good form of analysis I think for shorter term trading but hard for most to get their head around the fact that the leg your trading could go pearshaped and completely bugger up your count.

To be proficient will mean years of study.

Dr Jeff Eiseman(From reefcap) used Advanced Get for many years and found the labelling even by the software to be annoying.Youd be trading a wave 3 when price action indicates that the 3 wave A,B,C correction is infact not over but developing a 4th down leg in perhaps a 5 wave correction.(as an example).He has given up trading with it for consistant profits.

Nicks service will even track an index or individual stocks at $15/chart.

tech
Tech,

Elliot wave is supposed to be a study of psychology, specifically greed. Therefore it's very subjective. If you could gauge the level of confidence/sentiment, you'd probably do better at labelling the wave counts yourself. I also find using advanced get troublesome and would rarely use it.by DTM.

Considering the comments by two who have used it and know, what factors influenced your buying of Advanced GET? Also how has it been in practice?


The EOD GET has the scanner in it.
Just bought it at $3720
I didn't realise it was so expensive. I am truly shocked at the cost of some software products.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Hello Snake,

Have a deep look into it mate, but ask this of yourself, if it works why DO those that push it need to?

Its like a prognosis of the maybe.

Cheers Bob.

Bob,
I have been digging deep sir.
About 35% of all trends etc. will constitute a universe of EW tradable opportunities. (software puts a count on everything

There is some positive use for it if it understood from a point of knowing it's limitations. Still early days though.

Snake

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Tech,
by DTM.

Considering the comments by two who have used it and know, what factors influenced your buying of Advanced GET? Also how has it been in practice?


I didn't realise it was so expensive. I am truly shocked at the cost of some software products.

No comment tech?

[tech/a]

Snake sorry just saw the post.

I'll answer in a while bit busy.
Learnt a lot though both on the positive and negative--and there is negative.

[tech/a]

Snake.

Maybe worth having an Advanvced get thread.
If there is enough interested I'll go into more detail with my findings.

[tech/a]

Have found that by identifying where they are located in the trend helps make a discretionary decision on whether to trade or not.

Just saw this Kauri.
Very important no matter what analysis you are using.I can see you are using this to advantage in both entry and exit.

[Hudlass]

........ I would however like someones opinion on the wave count on the ASX 200 ........

Elliott Wave on the XJO can be found here (http://elliottwave.hudlass.com).