PBL - Publishing & Broadcasting

[DTM]

Hi All

Just wondering if anyone else thinks that PBL may be ready to go back up in the near future.

I think that it'll drop a little bit more but will be going up soon. Does anyone have the fundamentals for this one? Why has it been dropping?

[DTM]

PBL up 22 cents as we speak.

[DTM]

PBL up 40 cents and should slow down soon. I bought call options when it was up by 20 cents. I'm wondering if Rozella's making a dividends play and forcing the price up. ;)

[DTM]

PBL up 47 cents today. Any one catch this rocket? ;)

[DTM]

PBL up 22 cents today and still looks like its still got lots of room to go up. :D

[RichKid]

Looks like it's reversed, be careful though, may be reaching a cyclical high, watch for slowing momentum (see long term monthly chart).

[DTM]

Just looking through the A's of optionable stocks, AMC and AWC look set to go up.

Tech A, is that a double bottom on AMC? Will look to buy call options on them both on Monday.

[DTM]

PBL going through a retracement. Down 16 cents but will hold because I think it's momentum is still up.

As mentioned earlier, AWC and AMC are on their way back up again. Bought 30 contracts of the AWC $6 March call @ .11.

Looking throught the B's of optionable stocks, BLD and BSL looks set to go up. BSL actually looks a very strong mover.

[RichKid]

Looking throught the B's of optionable stocks, BLD and BSL looks set to go up. BSL actually looks a very strong mover.

I've been following BSL recently, not in it atm since I'm not sure of the direction. It's gone ex-div but some people will hold due to the 45 day rule, capital buy back still happening. Current formation was looking a bit toppish to me, might just be consolidation though, I expect an annct re price rise/surcharges for products before long. BSL may revert to a lower trajectory, which is why I'm not sure of BSL so far. Have to admit it really moves when it gets going. Will post a chart soon in the BSL thread: http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=8284#post8284 I'll probably enter via warrants.

[DTM]

PBL going through a retracement. Down 16 cents but will hold because I think it's momentum is still up.

As mentioned earlier, AWC and AMC are on their way back up again. Bought 30 contracts of the AWC $6 March call @ .11.

Looking throught the B's of optionable stocks, BLD and BSL looks set to go up. BSL actually looks a very strong mover.

AWC up 16 cents today. Could be the turning point.

[DTM]

PBL still going through a slight retracement.

AWC up 20 cents @ $6.18 today so I sold 10 contracts of the March $6 calls for .225, 100% profit. I won't count this as profit as I will use it to take 70% of my risk out of the market.

[RichKid]

PBL still going through a slight retracement.

AWC up 20 cents @ $6.18 today so I sold 10 contracts of the March $6 calls for .225, 100% profit. I won't count this as profit as I will use it to take 70% of my risk out of the market.

DTM, excuse my ignorance but what do you mean by that last sentence? I don't trade options so excuse the silly q.
(congrats on the profitable trade!)

[DTM]

DTM, excuse my ignorance but what do you mean by that last sentence? I don't trade options so excuse the silly q.
(congrats on the profitable trade!)

No problems Rich. Basically when I bought the calls yesterday, I bought them @ .11 X 30 (contracts) X 1000 = $3,300. Today, I sold 10 contracts @ .225 = $2,250 which is approximately 70% of the money (risk) I invested yesterday. So instead of counting it as profit, I've taken back 70% of my risk and left 20 contracts in there to run for profit. Ideally I would have preferred to get back 100% of my risk but I don't think tha AWC will get past $6.18 today. If AWC blows up on me, worst case scenario would be that I lose $1,050. If AWC moves up at least 50 cents by the end of March, my call option's value becomes $10,000. I suppose that's the risk reward ratio.

Hope this helps.

[RichKid]

No problems Rich. Basically when I bought the calls yesterday, I bought them @ .11 X 30 (contracts) X 1000 = $3,300. Today, I sold 10 contracts @ .225 = $2,250 which is approximately 70% of the money (risk) I invested yesterday. So instead of counting it as profit, I've taken back 70% of my risk and left 20 contracts in there to run for profit. Ideally I would have preferred to get back 100% of my risk but I don't think tha AWC will get past $6.18 today. If AWC blows up on me, worst case scenario would be that I lose $1,050. If AWC moves up at least 50 cents by the end of March, my call option's value becomes $10,000. I suppose that's the risk reward ratio.

Hope this helps.

Thanks DTM, that makes sense now, I try to get my capital out at the first opportunity too, still finetuning the strategy though. I trade bluechips via warrants but never realised I was missing out on so much leverage by avoiding options! Do you find there's a big difference between the options and warrants in terms of leverage generally? I assume you look at all possible instruments.

[DTM]

Thanks DTM, that makes sense now, I try to get my capital out at the first opportunity too, still finetuning the strategy though. I trade bluechips via warrants but never realised I was missing out on so much leverage by avoiding options! Do you find there's a big difference between the options and warrants in terms of leverage generally? I assume you look at all possible instruments.

I started with options so am very comfortable with them. I took a look at warrants but I think the rewards are better with options although I can't remember what warrants do again. Optiosn gives a lot of leaverage without the hang up of margin. If you can roughly guess where the price is moving to, you'd be able to make good money. You just have to get it right. Also, easy to make money in a bull market, easier still in a bear market.

The downside is that there's not many optionable stocks like the US although I have found that you can make more money in the Australian market.

for eg.

If you get it right, a share moving $1 equates to 10 contracts moving up $10,000 in value, and that's not including time and volatility value.

[Sea Dog]

PBL has been up and down like a yo-yo in the last couple of weeks

Any comments about PBL ?????

[DTM]

PBL has been up and down like a yo-yo in the last couple of weeks

Any comments about PBL ?????

The last two weeks have seen a few shares go up and down like a yo-yo. BHP, RIO, PBL, BSL, CBA and a few others. If you had bought BHP and RIO during the morning at about 10.30am to 11.00am and sold around 12 - 1pm you would have been able to capture 30 cents movements per day. I think that yesterday was a break in the pattern and things could be moving up now in general. If it doesn't change, then just take your profits when you can because conditions have been pretty choppy. Gold and Oil seem to be wave to be riding now. I recommended CTX to a friend when it retraced a couple of weeks ago but he didn't make the trade. This current retracement might be an opportunity to get in.

Don't take my ramblings as advice as I'm not a financial advisor as such. Do your own research.

PS I don't trade stocks, only options.

[stockman]

Does anyone know what % of PBL's money is invested in betfair. Like if betfair's profits double how much impact will that have on the stock?

Cause all i know is that when not if betfair gets a licence it will make bundles and other gambling stocks like tah, utb will get hurt severely.

[RichKid]

A possible 123 set up? Last few weeks suggests a minor bottom, so higher lows in the making? Solid volume in the last few months. Conservative trigger would be close above 16 imo.

[ob1kenobi]

A possible 123 set up? Last few weeks suggests a minor bottom, so higher lows in the making? Solid volume in the last few months. Conservative trigger would be close above 16 imo.

Rich, I agree. I've had this on my watchlist for awhile. I have shares in TEN bought some months ago @ $3-36. They've done as I expected and with Seven, have given PBL a run for their money. Nine is currently going through a major restructuring and cost cutting exercise. It's also lining up gaming interests in Asia. Let's see where it goes!

[ob1kenobi]

PBL seems to be finding support at $14-00 and resistance at $16-00. It may be retracing the $14-00 level of support or moving sideways. The 1 year chart and the YTD chart suggest that, though the 5 year chart suggests sustained improvement. It's a matter of perspective I guess! The 1 year chart is attached here, with volume. Volume appears to have been a bit more frenetic of late, even though it's trading in a narrow range. As mentioned previously, there are a lot of situations that are impacting this stock. Ecinya noted on 30 June that the Nine Network is looking soft. Nonetheless, worth a watch!

[GreatPig]

Well the big man has finally gone, and I heard someone say on TV that the share price could drop 5%-10%, but then reckoned that would create a buying opportunity.

Will James be able to fill his old man's shoes?

Cheers,
GP

[Ann]

Hard act to follow GreatPig,

I was thinking that there was no shock over the death so I can't see the price being hit too hard.....but hey, I could be wrong. It might be shorter's paradise out there tomorrow..

[ob1kenobi]

Ann, I agree with your summation. At present the chart is stable with support easily found at the $16-00 mark. As to whether anyone knew that he was about to die is speculation. In a broader sense, this could focus attention on media stocks for awhile, ahead of possible changes to cross media ownership laws next year. It could be a sector worth watching. Time will tell!

[visual]

The fact that the price is very stable at the moment ,when it could be expected to plunge ,even by experienced analysts means that the fact that Kerry was dying must have been well known among the financial circles, so that could explain the price staying stable.
The thing I`m having trouble understanding is Mr. Packer had two kids,James has always been in the public eye, fair enough,but what part will Gretel play or has she played in the past .And now that Kerry is dead will she take a bigger role in the company if indeed she ever had a role.All those associated with pbl seem to be men,yet at least 40% their money must be generated by women,magazines , for starters,viewers,I`m confused. :confused:

[Ann]

Hi visual

First question.Is Gretel interested? From memory and no-one quote me on this, I think Gretel's husband runs m2m MCL [into the ground] so I doubt there will be much from that area, but I could be wrong.

Looking at the MACD as I said, that was telling me a lot of people knew about Mr Packer and it was no shock.

Now I am wondering if your mumsanddad investor might think themselves really lucky it didn't hit the fan and decide to sell while the going is good?

This might ever so slowly draw the price down. I really don't know but it will be an interesting execise to watch.

[visual]

Ann, whats Gretel husband to do with this,

But anyway going by todays price looks like James has got the vote of confidence,for now I think pbl will be a look and see.After all the people who werent quite sure about him made their choice around august by the look of things,according to your chart. :D

[Ann]

Ann, whats Gretel husband to do with this,

I think Gretel would have taken over the reigns of one of Dad's companies instead of her husband, if she had been interested.

There is talk about splitting PBL. Insto chat suggests two halves will have a greater value than one whole. I don't know that the price today has a great deal to do with confidence in James. There is a bigger picture. I don't think he is in the frame.

However the next few weeks will be of more interest than the short term.

[RichKid]

On the funnymentals side I heard comments on the 7.30 report saying that a lot of the pressure for cross media ownership changes came from Packer, with him gone that'll ease so maybe less activity on that front but who knows? Packer's commercial acumen and judgement is what'll be missed in my opinion but James has had plenty of grooming (and a character building disaster) to help him through.

Technically prices are coiling/compressing so I expect a strong move in some direction, bet would be up based on general trend but note the proximity to the recent uptrend line of this wave. Volumes are hard to go by during holiday seasons so let's see what happens in early January.

[RichKid]

I think Gretel would have taken over the reigns of one of Dad's companies instead of her husband, if she had been interested.

...
The last few paras of this article suggest Gretel may still seek some role in PBL, not sure how much she gained during her period with Cleo and the magz at PBL, if she's not bright but has 'business intuition' she may be the first female Packer to make an impact as it sounds like she has a bit of her Dad's characteristics, at least on the surface. It's hard to really know as these are just unsubstantiated newspaper articles, even the sources aren't fully disclosed: http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/gretel-struggles-with-dads-last-big-decision/2005/12/31/1135915723955.html

[Ann]

Thanks for that link about Gretel RichKid,

My old Ma used to say....."one out, one in". In other words the newest to die gave up the soul to the newest to be born.

Perhaps Mr. Packer was familiar with this saying as well.

I think Mr. Packer has organized the next progression of PBL. He has had plenty of warning and he would have been capable of collecting good people around him. He would also have been able to assess peoples' abilities, and capabilities.

If that is Gretel's genuine reaction about her father's passing, then she would never be able to take over the reigns of a dog eat dog business. James loves the casinos, but not much else. Let's not forget about the 30 million dollar man that went over to Mr. Packer from BTs......was it Chris somebody-or-other. Forgot the name......getting old! :)

[visual]

I think Gretel reaction going by that article can be put down to the realisation that as a woman she wasnt important enough for her dad to make a sacrifice and hold out for just two more weeks(he might have had enough and truly wanted to die with dignity)however again by that article she would`ve known that had James been in her shoes the situation might have been different.


I doubt that Gretel will play a major role in pbl and it`s course has already been decided,I would think that going by the market decision it is now a truly look and see situation.

Even the news that he might sell channel nine seems to have made a non impression on people.

By the way Richkid,thanks for that article very interesting,who knows it may all be a kind of publicity on Gretel behalf to ease her into the spotlight now that Kerrys gone,but maybe i`m too cynical.

[RichKid]

....
By the way Richkid,thanks for that article very interesting,who knows it may all be a kind of publicity on Gretel behalf to ease her into the spotlight now that Kerrys gone,but maybe i`m too cynical.

Glad you folks liked it. I don't think we even have half the story here though, these family empires and large conglomerates are notriously complex, family members often scheme against one another. Was it Sam Chisholm who was brought in last year by Kerry to replace someoe else or have I mixed up my facts? I'd say he'd know a hellavu lot about what's going to happen. Also remember that people don't have to make their move now, these games are often played out over many years or decades, James could be 'taken out' when he's weak as all the pressure is on him now- this is his time to make or break it, that one tel disaster is one he had to face, he's lucky his dad was around at the time.

[Ann]

Nah, I reckon it has all been worked out in advance.

We....the members of the great uninformed will just have to sit it out until those that are in the know, filter down the information to us.

You know, crumbs falling from the table!

I wonder how many crumbs will fall before this plays out..... :p:

[Julia]

Thanks for that link about Gretel RichKid,

My old Ma used to say....."one out, one in". In other words the newest to die gave up the soul to the newest to be born.

Perhaps Mr. Packer was familiar with this saying as well.

I think Mr. Packer has organized the next progression of PBL. He has had plenty of warning and he would have been capable of collecting good people around him. He would also have been able to assess peoples' abilities, and capabilities.

If that is Gretel's genuine reaction about her father's passing, then she would never be able to take over the reigns of a dog eat dog business. James loves the casinos, but not much else. Let's not forget about the 30 million dollar man that went over to Mr. Packer from BTs......was it Chris somebody-or-other. Forgot the name......getting old! :)

Ann,

Re your last sentence: I think you're thinking of Chris Cuffe who went from Colonial First State, (not BT) where he produced astonishing results. CFS has gone downhill since he left. He is now, I think, CEO of Challenger Financial Services.

Julia

[Ann]

Well done Julia!

Spot on. Just the man I was meaning.

Terrible when you get older and the grey matter starts to get wrinkles in it! :D

[RichKid]

Alan Kohler today on PBL, he'll have more inside info than most imho: http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/packer-inc-new-blood-new-media-power-old-firm/2005/12/28/1135732641562.html

[taurus]

Alan Kohler today on PBL, he'll have more inside info than most imho: http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/packer-inc-new-blood-new-media-power-old-firm/2005/12/28/1135732641562.html

Good article RichKid. I've been following PBL more intensely since I got wind of the JV with Melco/casino deals with Aspers in UK. Will be an interesting co. to watch.

Cheers.

[chansw]

PBL pulls out of Singapore casino bid

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/pbl-pulls-out-of-singapore-casino-bid/2006/01/03/1136050443131.html

[Chief Wigam]

Looks like Packer has bought up big in his own stock 25 August. Anyone else following suit?

[mmmmining]

Recently I Have take near site look at the two properties owned by Melco (50% owned by PBL) in Macao, the Crown Casino Macao and City of Dream. Very impressive, particularly the City of Dream, just opposite to the Venetian Macao, the second best location on the Macao Strip.

According to the latest round of land sell, the land value of City of Dream could be worth several billions dollars. The surrounding land values have appreciated more than 20 times in a year!!! Somebody hits the jackpot even before open.

I believe that PBL worths to have close look if you want to have some gambling exposure. It will soon be amount the best in the world along with The Las Vegas Sands, Wynn, and MGM Group.

[mmmmining]

Strong demand for MELCO's IPO. (50% owned by PBL) The price is $19, above $16-18 range. It is going to be traded tomorrow on NASDAQ, code MPEL

I guess strong MPEL might boost PBL's price, or has been factored in the price already. We can find it out tomorrow.

[nomore4s]

Could someone with some EW skills give me some feed back on this chart of pbl and tell me if the counts are valid?
This is my first shot at EW so be gentle.
Thanks in advance for any help.

P.S this is purely educational.

[tech/a]

Had a look at both weekly and daily.

Cant get a good count on Daily but am happy with MY count on the Weekly.
Ive posted both my count and AGET's count. I'm not happy with the softwares count as some of the waves,dont match to conventional E wave theory
IE wave 3 is shortest in the count.
If you want possible targets then I'll have a look in the morning.

[nomore4s]

Thanks Tech,

Price targets would be good if & when you get time, all helps in my education. I don't look to be to far out with my count. Will keep studying

P.S the price target for wave 5 posted on my chart is based on the length of wave 1 on my chart, so if wave 1 is out so is the target.

[tech/a]

Keith.

There are many different counts possible on more complex charts.
In fact Elliot put out software which will give you all possible counts and the % chance that the count will be the correct count.

To those who havent studied Elliot youd be saying bloody hell how do you ever get a right count and my count maybe wrong according to others.

Radge put it best.

It's PROVE---DISPROVE----PROVE---DISPROVE.

Provided the wave count is within the RULES of Elliot counts then any count can be valid,until proven otherwise.
It does take a while to click but well worth the effort when it does.

Your Extensions of Wave one are correct and one possible target.
Gotta fly this morning.

[kennas]

Potential turn around story here. Stock meeting long term upward and horizontal support. Sorry, they don't mine for iron, or uranium, but I think James has shares in a few dodgy explorers here and there.

I'm not sure of the situation with the split and how it's going to effect the sp.

Not too impressed with the double top.

(not holding)

[Sprinter79]

There are reports of a work related fatality on one of PBL's affiliated CPH properties in the north of WA. When it has been confirmed, I can post relevant information.

[pcashman]

Hi All

PBL is scheduled to demerge soon into Gaming and Media. Packer likes to gamble (and so do a lot of people in this forum ;) ). PBL shareholders will vote on the de-merger this August. Meanwhile Packer is growing his gaming interests in China, North America, and Canada. Any thoughts on how the de-merger will affect share price in the near future. My "bet" is on gaming.

Thoughts?

Avery

[Dutchy3]

I've taken a LONG position on this one in the last few days ... seems to be doing the right thing today ... thought I'd posted a chart last week but does not look like it from here ...

Tell me do others get FGL and PBL also mixed up like I seem to do?

[Dutchy3]

PBL another quite predictable performer ... bit like FGL. It can move when it wants too else bounce around within a range ...

[greenfs]

Hi All

PBL is scheduled to demerge soon into Gaming and Media. Packer likes to gamble (and so do a lot of people in this forum ;) ). PBL shareholders will vote on the de-merger this August. Meanwhile Packer is growing his gaming interests in China, North America, and Canada. Any thoughts on how the de-merger will affect share price in the near future. My "bet" is on gaming.

Thoughts?

Avery

It was suggested to me (what now seems a long time ago) that when the de-merger happens, one should liquidate the media interests and double up (pardon the pun) on the gambling side.

Not sure if there is anything to suggest a change since then, but I certainly am in agreement with your thoughts.

[Judd]

We have just received the PBL Scheme Booklet. I have read the thing. If anyone can decipher Section 13 on the taxation issues and recast it into plain English, you deserve a double 1st Class Honours' Degree in English Literature and Taxation Law.

[Buffettology]

Current price $20.55

Investment Rating

PBL will split its Media and Gaming assets in late 2007, subject to an EGM. Media will have steady but reduced cash flows from 25% of Channel Nine with NBN and magazines plus new media assets like Foxtel. Gaming will have more upside with the Australian casinos plus the 41% JV with Melco to build Asian casinos. Its Australian Gaming assets have around $5bn book value. PBL has also invested around $550m in North American Gaming assets. The higher risk profile means more conservative investors may prefer Media or alternative investments. Others may still prefer investing alongside major 37% shareholder Consolidated Press. Competitive advantages are gaming management expertise and Consolidated Press support. This encourages PBL to take a longer term view before investments generate a suitable return. Longer term, Macau gaming can be thought of as a similar China bet to resources.

Event

* The de-merger vote will be on November 23, ahead of another minor event! You can receive one Crown share and one Consolidated Media Holdings (CMH) share plus $3/share per one PBL. You can choose to accept more Crown shares or more cash, subject to overall caps.

* PBL trades cum-entitlement to the $3/share until November 30. Deferred settlement of Crown and CMH starts on December 3 with normal trading from December 17.

Impact

* The de-merger is messy. The mechanics and taxation aspect are complex.

* Crown will become a promising internationally focused but Australian based gaming stock. CMH will be a shell holding company for residual PBL Media assets and relatively small new media investments.

* We mildly increase our valuation to $16.40/share for Crown, $5.80 for CMH giving $22 for PBL excluding the taxable $3/share. Total value nearly $25 per share.

* You will finally get scrip-for-scrip capital gains tax rollover relief for the Crown and CMH scrip you accept. The $3/share component will be taxable. The 570 page de-merger documents do not give sufficient comprehensive tax information.

* Key short term drivers will obviously be the EGM outcome, Crown's further acquisitions (Tabcorp or Las Vegas?), the FY08 results, Melco PBL's updates and CMH's corporate activity. Mr Packer clearly prefers Crown.

Recommendation Impact (Last Updated: 26/10/2007)

Given the uncertainty, it's probably better for longer-term shareholders to continue. Crown offers longer-term upside but is more fully priced. CMH has flatter growth so will trade on lower multiples. Accumulate/Accept


Might be a good buy, I definately like the Gaming side also!

[bryan_palmer]

Could CMH be bought out by Telstra (or maybe even Newscorp) so that either company can increase their stake in the increasingly profitable Foxtel?

[KamoteSoup]

Hi All,
I am very much a newbie with some PBL stocks that I've help for a couple of months now. I really dont follow the stockmarket, I just bought it as a part of Commsec's sixpack promotion which includes Commonwealth, Boral, etc.

I then saw that there was a demerger! I wonder what then happens to my PBL shares?

Thanks
Green Investor:confused:

[kennas]

Hi All,
I am very much a newbie with some PBL stocks that I've help for a couple of months now. I really dont follow the stockmarket, I just bought it as a part of Commsec's sixpack promotion which includes Commonwealth, Boral, etc.

I then saw that there was a demerger! I wonder what then happens to my PBL shares?

Thanks
Green Investor:confused:You should contact the company for confirmation, but if you have not signed any bits of paper saying what you wanted to do under the scheme, I think you now have 1 Crown share, and will be sent $3, for each PBL share you owned.

[Ferret]

As well as the Crown share and $3 payment, you will have got a Consolidated Media share (PBLDA) for each PBL share you owned. Enjoy!