MXG - Multiplex Group

[el_ninj0]

Just wanted to know what anyones thoughts might be on MXG at the moment?, they have lost alot of value recently, but i have a slight incling that they are going to shoot up again.

Thanks

[doctorj]

With the history of sport stadium projects around the world and MXG writedown of their project at Wembley to break even after telling investors justh how great it was going to be a month ago, understandably the market is a little upset at MXG.

Sunday Times in WA had it listed as a "buy" this week, I can't claim to be quite so confident in the near term.

[el_ninj0]

Thats interesting, I really picked them as a winner for this week, because of the fact that there was rapid controlled selling by panicing share holders, so it became undervalued.

[yongchao]

Good profit earnings last quater and it's no doubt undervalued after the Wimbley Statium event. I see the recent interim report as a good indicator that it's gonna bounce back. What doya think?

Cheers,
YC

[el_ninj0]

Its already bounced back today to a degree. It was down to $4.22 on monday, I would have invested then, but I was in the process of pulling out of MUL. Definetely a strong company and worth investing in. Not as stable as MAP though.

[yongchao]

Yup but still huge potential growth in the coming months. I expect it to get back to it's original 5.2 - 5.7 range in 6 months. Can't see any reasons why it won't.

Cheers,
YC

[el_ninj0]

volume has been alot higher today for it, so things are looking up. I made a few dollars off them when they first dropped and them went back up. Sold before they crashed again. But i agree, they should be back up at around $5 within a month I think.

[skin]

A good yield (7.6%) and growth stock. Bought at 4.49 looking for the rise. Will wait.

[The Barbarian Investor]

Personaly i like MXG..and MGX must be the X Factor :D

[Bodhi2500]

Hi..Anyone know what the reasons were that caused the price to fall about $1 in early jan and again in mid feb 2005?

[stockGURU]

After an initial selloff this morning, MXG found good support at $4.25 and the buy side depth has strengthened considerably in the last hour.

Price has pushed back over $4.30 on solid volume, including a one million share cross trade.

Keep an eye on this one.

[yongchao]

Hi..Anyone know what the reasons were that caused the price to fall about $1 in early jan and again in mid feb 2005?
Take a look at this:
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/050224/19/3h8k.html

[yongchao]

Multiplex Offers 21.3% Potential Upside, Merrills Says

Wednesday March 23, 2005, 9:32 am

The analysts at Merrill Lynch have upgraded their recommendation on Multiplex (ASX: MXG.ax) to Buy, Medium Risk, while pointing to 21.3% potential upside in the stock.
At current levels the analysts feel the share price has overreacted to issues highlighted in the first half result, including Wembley Stadium, concluding that risks to their view are typical of the industry groups in which the company operates, namely construction, development and residential communities.

Merrill Lynch’s valuation methodology results in a target of $4.85 on the stock.

However, this positive stance is not supported by all the country’s leading brokers and analysts.

UBS, Macquarie and Aspect Huntley all have positive recommendations on the stock, CSFB rates it a Neutral, while GSJB Were, Citigroup and Deutsche Bank rate the stock a Sell.

[stockGURU]

Anyone else think this one has been oversold?

First there was the Wembley project debacle, then there were the threats to shoot the crane operators.

Lately of course, it has been battered by the recent downturn in the market.

My view is that all of the bad news has already been factored into MXG's stock price and if market conditions improve in the short term we may see a bit of a turnaround.

A solid international focus and plenty of quality projects on the go, this may be one to investigate further for those taking a long term view.

Just my opinion though. Please do your own research.

[markrmau]

I do not hold, but I agree that it has been oversold. It was dumped along with mirvac after mirvac's downgrade and the soft appartment starts figures. However, I read somewhere (fin review?) that only 15% of it's earnings (or portfolio or something) was from apartments.

[skin]

Can someone explain why MXG would be financing a debt through an alternative route than through the Banks. What is the benefit in what the company is doing? Is it something to do with an expected rise in interest rates?

[stockGURU]

Can someone explain why MXG would be financing a debt through an alternative route than through the Banks. What is the benefit in what the company is doing? Is it something to do with an expected rise in interest rates?

I would also like to know the answer to this question. This is the relevant announcement:


MULTIPLEX PROPERTY TRUST TO RESTRUCTURE DEBT THROUGH $1 BILLION CMBS ISSUE
Multiplex Property Trust today announces that it will seek to restructure a significant portion of its bank debt via a $1 billion
Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) issue.
The CMBS will be offered in two series and with tranches ranging from AAA through to BBB-. The senior tranche will be
rated by Standard & Poor’s, Fitch and Moody’s with the other tranches to be rated by Standard & Poor’s and Fitch. Series
One has a scheduled maturity of three years and Series Two has a scheduled maturity of five years.
The issue is being arranged by ANZ Investment Bank. The Royal Bank of Scotland and ANZ Investment Bank are Joint Lead
Managers for the issue.
The CMBS will be secured over 17 prime properties which have a fair market value of $1.7 billion. The assets are located in
Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Canberra and Perth.
Series One will be secured by eight office buildings including Sydney’s KPMG Tower and NRMA Centre, AMP Place in
Brisbane and BankWest Tower in Perth. These assets provide a current weighted average occupancy of 98% and weighted
average lease expiry of 4.9 years.
Series Two will be secured by five office buildings, including Sydney’s landmark Ernst & Young Centre and the
Commonwealth Bank Building in Brisbane, and four retail centres which offer a current weighted average occupancy of 93%
and a weighted average lease expiry of 7.6 years. The retail properties include: King Street Wharf, Sydney; Pittwater Place
Shopping Centre, Mona Vale; and Carillon City Shopping Centre, Perth.

MXG is performing strongly this afternoon and is up 2.24% to $3.65 so far. Will be interesting to see where it finishes.

[markrmau]

I don't know the answer, but

1. Could there be tax advantages?
2. Could it be to reassure the market (which has happened), because a bank cannot come in and send to the receivers (ala SGW, ION, and a small example SSS)? (If mxg starts to look shaky, the bond price will drop and yeild will go up, particularly on the lesser rated bonds).

Basically, it doesn't matter why. The market has no objections as the SP is going up.

[TjamesX]

Can someone explain why MXG would be financing a debt through an alternative route than through the Banks. What is the benefit in what the company is doing? Is it something to do with an expected rise in interest rates?

Looks to me as if the Bank wants its money back. The detail of the loan arrangement would shed some light as to what/how this was triggered - either by Multiplex or the banks. The bank may not be happy with the rate that its getting for its risk or Multiplex may not be happy with the rate its paying. Or maybe the bank just needs the its capital?? Has there been a change in Multiplex's circumastances that triggered the event?

...... After looking into it a bit further its seems as if this relates to the announcement made on the 3rd March regarding funding arrangements. It has been triggerd by the aquisition of the Ronin Property Group.

It appears as if the banks involved have provided bridging finance and were intending to issue the debt onto the debt market. The reason for doing this on the companies side could be to access capital at cheaper rates or have access to more flexible financing for further developments (ie just issue more CMBS) without having to negotiate on terms (ie with a bank).

Using the debt market to access debt rather than through banks has been a growing trend for corporations over the last few decades. You would have to look at the interest rates of the securities being issued compared to its current financing to see whether multiplex is materially better/worse off (im sure it will be only a small change either way)

TJ

[TjamesX]

because a bank cannot come in and send to the receivers (ala SGW, ION, and a small example SSS)? (If mxg starts to look shaky, the bond price will drop and yeild will go up, particularly on the lesser rated bonds)

This sounds pretty right to me, the rating agencies will now be the assesors of risk held by bondholders rather than the banks being the assesors of their own risk at, their own terms. And the bondholders wont be able to trigger a repayment of their debt at anywhere near the same terms as the banks can.

TJ

[stockGURU]

MXG has been hammered this morning and I'm not sure if it's because of the announcement yesterday afternoon regarding the $1 billion CMBS issue or the annoucement this morning regarding the sale of their interest in the White City project in the U.K.

Currently at $3.38. :banghead:

Anyone got any comments?

[stockGURU]

ahhh, ok. Now it's becoming clearer. This is part of the annoucement this morning. Sounds a little ominous. Hmmm.


The extent of any impact of this transaction on Multiplex Group’s full year 2005 accounts needs to be considered in
conjunction with accounting for the Duelguide transaction as a whole. Multiplex is planning to announce updated forecast
guidance for the full year 2005 accounts around 31 May 2005, by which time all areas of the Groups activities including the
impact of the Duelguide acquisition will have been reviewed. If it becomes practicable to provide earnings guidance prior to
that date Multiplex will do so.

:eek:

[markrmau]

I don't hold this one but look for MRE's comments:

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/050518/18/4ghc.html

"At 0600 GMT, Multiplex had partially recovered from its 15% fall to be down 44 cents or 12.2% at A$3.17 on volume of 18.9 million shares. It had earlier plunged 19% to record low of A$2.93.


In a note to clients, Macquarie Research Equities said the "market is currently critical of nearly every move that Multiplex makes" but the sale of the stake in White City, a shopping center development in West London, is a positive, strategic move.


Multiplex is forfeiting a potential profit in 2009 for the certainty of a profit this year, Macquarie said.


"The sale further focuses the development business upon the range of opportunities it has within its control in the U.K," Macquarie added.


Multiplex said its profit on the sale of the White City stake will be around GBP10 million.

[stockGURU]

MXG have made another announcement this afternoon in response to their share price savaging today. Interesting stuff.


We refer to the announcement made earlier today concerning the sale of Multiplex Group’s (“the Group’s”) minority interest
in the UK White City shopping centre project, and to subsequent unfounded market speculation regarding the Group’s
solvency and the possible involvement of the Group’s financiers in this and other recent asset sales.

As noted in our earlier announcement, the Group’s decision to sell its effective 12.5% minority interest in this asset to
Westfield is consistent with a preference not to hold small minority equity interests in assets without some form of
accompanying asset or property management role. In conjunction with the decision of our co-owner (Aldersgate) to sell its
interest in the White City project, the Group determined that the capital tied up in this investment (which is not scheduled for
completion until late 2007) could be better deployed into other activities within the Group.

The Group continues to have substantial cash at hand, and today has available to it undrawn debt lines in excess of $400
million. This position will be further improved upon the implementation of the Group’s long term debt structure for the
Multiplex Property Trust (“the Trust”), which is anticipated to complete on Friday. A component of this is the $1.0 billion
CMBS program which was launched, priced and announced yesterday and is also due for settlement on Friday. This is the
largest such program ever undertaken in Australia, and the Group believes its average margin over 3 month BBSW of
0.334% is an accurate reflection of the high quality of its investment portfolio. The majority of this debt was rated AAA (or
equivalent) by Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch Ratings.

The restructuring of the Trust’s facilities was first identified as an opportunity for the Group over 9 months ago. This initiative
was developed and implemented by the Group to provide long tenor, low cost debt commensurate with its peer group in the
LPT sector. This initiative has been well supported by the Group’s core bankers, who have been instrumental in assisting
the Group through this process and continue to provide substantial credit facilities to the Group. We note the Group
maintains excellent relationships with all of its bankers.

Further, we refer to the announcement made on 7 April 2005 in which the market was advised that the Group’s peak gearing,
following completion of the Southern Cross project and further investment into development projects, was forecast to be
below 33%. This forecast position remains unchanged.

[AKH]

I'm guessing there has been an over-reaction, but I wouldn't put money on it until I can see the early stages of some positive price movement.

Citigroup rate it as a buy with a target of $4.14 (today $3.150 - $3.310), while UBS agree but have a target of $3.60.

[ob1kenobi]

AU:MXG Multiplex Group 5/19/2005 4:05 PM

NAV: 3.23 Change: 0.07 Offer: 3.31 Yield: 4.20

Percent Change: 2.22% 52 Week Range: 2.93 to 6.15

Company Data

Company Name: Multiplex Group

Dow Jones Industry: Not Available

Exchange: Sydney ASX

Shares Outstanding: 837,402,185

Market Cap: 2.7 Billion

Short Interest: Exchange provides no short interest data.

52-Week EPS: 0.096

52-Week High: 6.15 on Tuesday, February 01, 2005

52-Week Low: 2.93 on Tuesday, May 17, 2005

P/E Ratio: 33.65

Yield: 4.20%

Average Price: 3.89 (50-day) 4.65 (200-day)

Average Volume: 3,864,700 (50-day) 3,511,100 (200-day)


Personally, the stats and the chart doesn't inspire confidence. The chart for the YTD has been on a negative gradient (trend line) for sometime and today's price puts it 40% below the all ords. There is a lot of volatility in this stock and its in an industry sector that is slowing courtesy of an almost universal tightening of monetry policy by the central banks. It will remain on my watch list for a while yet.
:)
____________________________
This is merely my opinion and does not constitute financial advice. When considering your financial objectives, please consult a suitably qualified and licenced professional.

[stockGURU]

Multiplex has downgraded it's FY2005 after tax profit to $170 million... significantly down from its forecast of $235 million.

Loss on the Wembley project is $109 million, and that's after the $50 million indemnity pledged by the Roberts family.

Looks like it's going to get hammered tomorrow.

:axt:

[DTM]

Multiplex has downgraded it's FY2005 after tax profit to $170 million... significantly down from its forecast of $235 million.

Loss on the Wembley project is $109 million, and that's after the $50 million indemnity pledged by the Roberts family.

Looks like it's going to get hammered tomorrow.

:axt:

It took them all weekend to come with this figure??? Didn't they know it before or was creative accounting used??? :sly: Look out for contingent liabilities. ;)

I've heard from people in the industry that its more like 200 million. :eek:

Could be just rumours, but be prepared for more bad news.

[jeremyviva]

it reaches bottom at 2.53 today ..? it is beautiful lto see in the chart.
can it go up?

l am new... thanks for reply!!!!!!

[serp]

can it go up?


Yeah it can go up, but will it??? :)

I was in a position to buy I'd maybe consider holding in for mid term to see if there are any gains to be had, but don't take that as advice! I am no way qualified for any kind of financial advice :)

I could see it going down more as well, depends how badly wembely stadium blows out, if they don't get that sucker finished on time I could see a knee jerk reaction from the market too.

However this is just all speculation what i'm saying.

[chansw]

An article "Multiplex wins $389m Dubai job" from SMH (6 Dec 2005)

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/multiplex-wins-389m-dubai-job/2005/12/05/1133631200642.html

[arlee123]

hi guys, bought some shares in mxg last year when it was at a all time low with the wembley stadium delays and all that. however, one year now, the price is still pretty much the same as last year..
just wondering if anyone can give advice whether to let go or hold.

if let go,ie sell, then what shares do you recommend me to buy...dont mind risk...just wanna high return.

cheers

[Joe Blow]

hi guys, bought some shares in mxg last year when it was at a all time low with the wembley stadium delays and all that. however, one year now, the price is still pretty much the same as last year..
just wondering if anyone can give advice whether to let go or hold.

if let go,ie sell, then what shares do you recommend me to buy...dont mind risk...just wanna high return.

cheers

Arlee, Please do not ask for specific advice on what stocks to buy or sell on ASF as this is considered the provision of financial advice and by law only licensed financial advisors are allowed to provide this.

[arlee123]

Arlee, Please do not ask for specific advice on what stocks to buy or sell on ASF as this is considered the provision of financial advice and by law only licensed financial advisors are allowed to provide this.
k no worries

[ricee007]

So, bit over 3 years on..... Would it be wrong to use this thread to discuss MXUPA :)?

If not, anyone else holding these little bad boys?