DJS - David Jones

[markrmau]

Commsec gives DJS P/E=12.52 Div Yield=6%, 100% franked.

Don't think the market is over reacting a tad?

[markrmau]

Retail sales in department stores are up, and there is a possibility the next interest rate won't happen (though read Ross Gittens in todays SMH for alternative view).

So I just bought 10000 DJS.

(And my partner can go nuts with the DJS discount card it looks like).

[DTM]

Nice buy Mark, looks like you've bought at the bottom. I can only see the price going up on this one, especially heading into dividends time.

[markrmau]

Any idea why retailers jumped today? DJS and MRL.

Perhaps expected tax cuts? Worth getting back into DJS?

(I wouldn't touch MRL though)

[markrmau]

DJS looks like it could be a buy. SP has been pummeled by the warm winter / retail slowdown, but looks like the good management practice will still allow them to maintain earnings and dividend growth.

Please do own research. I am going to wait for late trading to confirm my view.

[Nicks]

DJS - great stock, good management, excellent dividends, good operating business, most successful major department store. Less competition now with Myers going down the gurgler. More strategic alliances with suppliers. Getting into real assets - Sydney and Melb buying the store real estate. Real assets is always good, and if they are doing it they must be cashed up.
Thumbs up for DJS.

[crackaton]

I agree

[Nicks]

So does the market, up 5% today.

Regardless still a good cash cow, brings in great dividends and will hover around $2.50, maybe more as they are growing by buying their real estate - excellent strategy to improve growth and EPS.

[rozella]

Dividend is announced mid to late March

[scotth_73]

DJS - great stock, good management, excellent dividends, good operating business, most successful major department store. Less competition now with Myers going down the gurgler. More strategic alliances with suppliers. Getting into real assets - Sydney and Melb buying the store real estate. Real assets is always good, and if they are doing it they must be cashed up.
Thumbs up for DJS.

given the above quote, this is a company worth investing in. it's an absolute "model" on the cat-walk as was shown off by the company in its spring collection. currrent market valuations suggest DJS "models" are size 16-18 and whilst cuddly for dividends renders a lack of capital gains at current levels.

[swingstar]

I'm quite bullish on DJS. I think we may be in a for a small correction soon (wave 4), but I think it has a long way up to go yet.

I have counted it down to the daily, but this is the larger picture on the weekly.

[Dr Doom]

As Maverick said to Goose - 'he's going vertical Mav'. So too has DJS with blow-off past $4 today. Weakening retail conditions are yet to be factored in apparently.

[swingstar]

I think we're in wave iii of 5 of (3), so still bullish in the short-term. Have projected around $4.30 for this wave iii.

[Dr Doom]

As far as technical indicators go, this is the perfect parabola setup. Wait and see I guess.

(And I think Goose actually said to Maverick :o )

[swingstar]

Here is my EW count on the daily... The wave 4 is the "small correction" I anticipated in my last post. The grey line is $4.30, where a number of projection techniques using Fib coincide.

[Dr Doom]

This one is getting interesting now, what I call a sharp binary, ie it could go either way with a bang. The upside may be limited by fundamentals, but could be subject to buy-out/takeover fever. The downside is that none of that happens and retail will continue to weaken. Interesting chart still :o

[swingstar]

I exited my long position earlier today. It got close enough to my projection (.02) and retreated back the other day, so I think we're into wave iv. After this, if it is indeed wave iv, we should see a further move up and then another, longer correction.

[Dr Doom]

Some big numbers starting to appear on both sides of the bid/ask ledger. The stock hasn't moved either side of $4.06 for a few days now as buyers & sellers are locked into a tug of war. I don't hold much faith in this one taking off again, especially if the buyers capitulate if the market generally continues it's indecision of the last 3 days. :confused:

[Dr Doom]

Not a good sign here, down 5c when the index, XDJ is up a massive 45 points.

[Lucstar]

The recent retraction in SP may stand as an opportunity to stock up. This business has great fundamentals. They're building up their non-current assets (by buying the Melb and Syd stores), which is a great investment especially in times of rent being through the roof. Also, they're opeining up new stores in many new locations (burwood, doncaster, etc), which will give them more market share. David Jones has some of the best management team i've ever seen, who is constantly improving the way they do business (cost cutting). Infact, i know this for a fact becuase i, myself, am employed by David Jones and i have seen them exploit us very well (lol, jking). Furthermore, they're really pulling in the cash recently. I've never seen our stores so busy in recent times. We've been working our arses off. So i believe the retail sector is still far from economic slowdown. FUNDAMENTALS ARE BEUTIFUL!!!! I'm definately looking for an opportunity to stock up.

Love to hear from others' opinion

[Dutchy3]

Not my preferred time frame and I also note the parabolic weekly chart ... all the same have been a buyer the last two days of this week .... quick and dirty

[Uncle Festivus]

Not my preferred time frame and I also note the parabolic weekly chart ... all the same have been a buyer the last two days of this week .... quick and dirty

Nothing like a bit of retail therapy Dutchy :D
The twins have done well lately (DJS & HVN). What price target are you looking for or will you bail out at the first sign of weekness? CFD's I presume?

[Dutchy3]

Hi Unc

Second sign of weakness and yep CFD's ... the weekys a concern though even when I try not to pick market tops this one has had a great run ... might only get 10 - 20 % but nicely geared

[Uncle Festivus]

The next cab off the takeover rank perhaps? What's going on here? Topped out at $5.40 so far today, big volume.

[Dutchy3]

Really .... a take over? Goodie ... Might have to revise my expectations for this one , 10 - 20% has already been achieved ...

[BuzzMoo]

Hi all, first post, long time lurker - very new to trading but i thought I'd open a thread because I couldn't find any discussion on David Jones, and need a sounding board for developing my analysis! My very first trade was with this stock and I made $90 or so, and I was going to keep riding the wave. But these economic worries have muted the Santa Claus rally i was hoping for, and the January Effect surely is horribly distorted this year on account of the troubles. I haven't jumped back in because I don't feel confident in predicting the news, and things could get pretty dramatic.

Still, I understand DJS to have profited well during Dec and will likley post increased profits.

That said, the stock is currently trading at $5, found resistance at 5.5 on NYE and has dropped through the 5.06 support it found mid Dec. Looking at my charts i see the next support at 4.8.

On bad economic news I can see it falling, if the news lightens up it looks like it would be happy to run back up to previous highs as it looks like it took some heavy selling today. My limited technical analysis skills don't paint a satisfactory picture... I'm one of those guys who reads the news first and then looks at the charts.

Any thoughts/experiences appreciated!

[imaginator]

What happened to the stock price? If u look at the chart it stinks. Is subprime the problem here?

Today they posted higher profit. But will it break that big downtrend on their charts?

[roland]

Been collecting a few DJS around this level since reading the report from Aegis. Aegis have put a buy on the stock with an expected low of around $3.20 - obviously we are there already :)

Dividend return is now better than most of the banks and 100% franked. 12 month target is around $5.00

Pity the volume seems a little low, but looks to be quite a stable stock.

[roland]

It's a bit lonely here in DJS land :(

Closed at $2.93 today, or 3.62% down for the day. The lowest it's been since August 2006. I picked up some more today at $2.95 bring my average down to a little over $3.20.

Dividend yield at this level is nearing 8% fully franked.

Annoucements today show that Ausbil Dexia Ltd have just become a substantial holder with picking up 24.5M shares.

I am personally quite confident that DJS at these levels is a very good buy. Indicative growth for FY08-09 is 5%-10% PAT.

Just my opinion and not a recomendation - as always :)


P.S. Still waiting for my DJ Shareholders card to get 2% off everything in their stores as well - that'll make the missus happy

[kenny]

Hi Roland,

Hopefully it's not as quiet in the DJ's stores themselves. :)

I'm curious on what strategy are you considering to average down on DJS?

The stock has recently come up on my radar as a possible turnaround soon BUT the retail sector and especially the discretionary spending part of it is not facing rosy times ahead.

Aspect Huntley is getting interested sub $3.00.

Do you think the attractive historical yield is sustainable with depressed sales figures?

regards,

Kenny

[roland]

Hi kenny,

I got some more at $2.82, so my average is now $3.16. My plan with DJS was always to go in light and average down until I have collected the quantity I was after and then just sit on it.

As for the dividend yield ... well, I suppose one would like to think it will hold. I don't believe that DJS are under any financial stress. Their customers tend to be in the higher income bracket of the market, so they are probably under less stress than some of the heavy discounters - like Clive Peters for example.

[roland]

2 x very nice days running for DJS, have sold off 2 x parcels at a good 8% gain. Still have 3 x parcels and will start collecting again if it goes below $3.00

DJS is shaping up to be quite an interesting short term trading stock. Not a huge volume, but quite volatile.

[roland]

another great day for David Jones - up 5.33% to $3.36, a little higher through the course of the day.

I am all in profit now and trying to decide whether to sell and take the profit, or to hold for dividends.

I suspect that I am close to being the only holder of DJS on ASF :)

[roland]

a bit of slippage today, down nearly 3% for no other reason than the usual clone "follow the market". I suspect a little panic profit taking since we are on a 6 week SP high.

[roland]

Sold! (well except for 1K which I bought at $3.48), at $3.48. Now I am waiting for the guts to drop out of it again so I can get them back. I now have "sellers remorse"

[roland]

Buying opportunity for me with the drop to $3.30, only 1,000 units - brings my average down to $3.40

Aegis have lowered their 12 month target to $3.57 and have the following comentary:


After reporting a strong Christmas trading period, DJS has maintained 2H08 guidance of 8%-13%, which we see as attainable. The company has undertaken to deliver 5%-10% NPAT growth through the cycle and committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of not less than 85%. The slowing of consumer spending is starting to impact DJS' like-for-like sales growth rates, however, management has taken steps to offset lower sales through cost reduction strategies.

So, maybe a slightly weaker Dividend payout - but should retain enough value to make the div worthwhile.

[roland]

Thought I would spread my misery around with all my holdings. Maybe my losses will brighten up someone else.

DJS -19.72%

[roland]

Thought I would spread my misery around with all my holdings. Maybe my losses will brighten up someone else.

DJS -19.72%

Well, I held - and traded where applicable, collected some dividends on the way and now up 20.35% (not including dividend returns)

Quite an amazing turnaround.

I must say that I am quite impressed with the management team at David Jones, they are very quick with adjustments to inventory. Focusing on exclusive product lines takes away some of the profit eating practices of maintaining price competiveness with other retailers cutting margins to maintain market share.

Unlike the over optimistic forecasts of some other companies, DJS projections tend to be cautious and if anything a little pessimistic - a recipe that can easily delight the market when they appear to over achieve.

[Julia]

That's an interesting "disproving" of the maxim "never hold a falling stock", Roland. Did you have a level at which you would have sold, or did you have such faith in DJS that you were confident to hold for a rebound?

[skc]

I have said it before and I will say it again..

NEVER under-estimate the power of Miranda Kerr (and Megan Gale).

Well done Roland. But Julia asked the question I wanted to ask as well. Was it lucky, insight or other?

[roland]

Well, I certainly couldn't claim any insight, but have traded DJS for a few years now and felt pretty confident with their strategies.

On the other hand, I just got a little pig headed with not wanting to lose any more and decided to keep hold of stocks that payed dividends at or above bank rates.

So I kept Westpac, David Jones, Babcock and Brown Wind (now Infinigen) - all of which, with dividends, are in profit.

As for how far I would have held...... tough question, I would have held until the dividends were suspended.

I think :)

[ricee007]

Ahhg,

Just thought I would check out DJS...

Turns out dividends were just paid 2 days ago, and in less than a week the stock has gone up from $3.01 to $3.64 (and paid the 11c dividend [ I undestand record date wasn't 2 days ago]).

Hmm, not quite comfortable buying in at this level (which more accuratly reflects the value of DJs, comparedd to $3).

[roland]

Ahhg,

Just thought I would check out DJS...

Turns out dividends were just paid 2 days ago, and in less than a week the stock has gone up from $3.01 to $3.64 (and paid the 11c dividend [ I undestand record date wasn't 2 days ago]).

Hmm, not quite comfortable buying in at this level (which more accuratly reflects the value of DJs, comparedd to $3).

Yes, I would agree, my average is $3.02 - I won't be adding unless the share price drops below $2.90

[ricee007]

Yes, I would agree, my average is $3.02 - I won't be adding unless the share price drops below $2.90
Poor us:)

Last price: $4.12.

The result of how confident Australian consumers are (100.1 IIRC) has seemingly really helped DJs, up 22c yesterday.

Cheers,
Rhys

[roland]

DJS's still powering ahead. Media reporting consumer confidence helps :)

Sold my highest packet at $4.30 just now, leaves me with 3,000 at an average of $2.73.

Can't help but feeling a pull back is due. Looking at the chart - seems like $3.60 could be a nice pyramid purchase.

[Wysiwyg]

Big DJ at all time highs again now. Took 4 years before, done in 6 months now. Go bulls go, go bulls go, yayyyyy. :rolleyes:

[bloomy88]

Looking at DJS, it appears to be much better value than MYR at the moment.

P/E of 13 compared to 17
D/E of 15% compared to 57%
Dividend yeilds are similar
DJS predicting profit growth of 5-10%, MYR predicting growth as 0-2%

DJS have had a big turn around of processes in recent years and is currently near all time high levels

Any other thoughts?

[skc]

CEO left in disgrace this morning on inappropriate behaviour towards a female staff member.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/disgraced-david-jones-ceo-mcinnes-exits-with-2m-20100618-ykjp.html

I hope that female staff member was not Miranda Kerr... :eek:

[Julia]

It doesn't matter who the staff member is, it's unbelievably stupid behaviour from someone in the CEO's position.

[Bigukraine]

It doesn't matter who the staff member is, it's unbelievably stupid behaviour from someone in the CEO's position.

absolute power corrupt's absolutely.... some of these guy's think their too smart and have no respect for the general population that are not of their station.:mad:

[nulla nulla]

It doesn't matter who the staff member is, it's unbelievably stupid behaviour from someone in the CEO's position.


absolute power corrupt's absolutely.... some of these guy's think their too smart and have no respect for the general population that are not of their station.:mad:

I understand that he left with a $2,000,000 payout. Maybe it was contrived? How much does the victom get?

[Julia]

I understand that he left with a $2,000,000 payout. Maybe it was contrived? How much does the victom get?

I doubt very much it was contrived, nulla. He actually lost entitlement to a lot more than that. This is from "The Australian":

David Jones chairman Bob Savage slashed Mr McInnes's payout by at least $4m, with the former chief getting his statutory pay of $450,000 plus a "mutually agreed" $1.5m.

According to the terms of his contract, he could have picked up $3.6m in termination pay plus a bonus of $2.5m along with other long term, incentives.

Mr Savage defended the company's decision to give Mr McInnes a "settlement payment" of $1.5m and said David Jones did not have a culture of harassment.

Radio report on the ABC this evening said there was no report of the young woman concerned being 'paid off', that Mr McInnes had forestalled this by taking the initiative to resign.
What a hell of a price to pay for a silly little ego trip or whatever it was.
Total idjit.

[nulla nulla]

A very young boy being bathed by his mother looked down at his tool kit and asked "Mummy is that my brains?". His mother answered "No dear, not yet".

[Lucstar]

After a period of dormant activity, the technicals of this stock shows a sign of outbreak. Should be a good run to come. Definately a stock to keep an eye on.


P.S. I want to attach a chart to show the outbreak graphically. But i dont know how to attach image file. My apologies there.

[eunza]

I agree with Lucstar on DJS right now - SP looking positive - clear and established Uptrend happening:

RSCD T/A: Daily Chart attached

1. Price trend - Obvious price trending upwards

2. RMACD : Bullish and confirmed MA Heading lower (bullish) Note the 3 arrows where the Pink shading has pushed lower on 3 consecutive occasions. Also on AVG the trend continues to be supported by at least the Blue line. There are 3 levels of support:
Green line - Optimum support - bounce off below this line again (may) start another breakout upwards on the SP (buy)
Blue line - Will confirm the bullish trend (hold/buy)
Red line - breaking of this support will indicate the trend has failed and will most likely retrace upwards. Although the SP will not always drop instantly the further up this goes the higher the chances.
As a guide the long arrow on the MA describes the overall direction.

3. This is an example of a very consistent uptrend on the RSI - note the high level of support on the green line. Although a break of the blue and red lines wouldn't automatically indicate a sell out - This would need to be considered against the RMACD

I currently hold.






After a period of dormant activity, the technicals of this stock shows a sign of outbreak. Should be a good run to come. Definately a stock to keep an eye on.


P.S. I want to attach a chart to show the outbreak graphically. But i dont know how to attach image file. My apologies there.

[skc]

Court action now being persued... a cool $37m is being asked for.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/david-jones-sex-harassment-case-publicist-sues-for-37m-20100802-112iw.html


In a landmark claim lodged today in the Federal Court, Ms Fraser-Kirk is seeking 5 per cent of the profits made by David Jones and 5 per cent of Mr McInnes's salary while he worked for the company.

I wonder how the lawyers argue that DJ shareholders should pay 5% of profit to the claim? Doesn't such case require demonstration of damages?

[eunza]

Thanks for the heads up skc

Also saw it mentioned on General forum - I've decided to get out of DJS for now - Although the court action will most likely fail there will be some knee jerk selling anyway. So to avoid any headaches and so I don't have to watch the Fundamentals too closely i've back out.




Court action now being persued... a cool $37m is being asked for.



I wonder how the lawyers argue that DJ shareholders should pay 5% of profit to the claim? Doesn't such case require demonstration of damages?

[Lucstar]

This whole sexual harrassment thing has been totally blown out of proportion.

Mark McInnes only "ATTEMPTED" to approach the silly blonde. She rejected his advances and the story ends there. I mean come on. This happens every night at night clubs. Mark McInnes was a great CEO and it was already over-done when he handed resignation for the so-called "sexual harrassment". And
now she wants $37 million in compensation. What an absolute joke! What damages did she incurr? NOTHING! There's absolutely no substance for a court case. She will not get a dime. If theres anything she'll achieve, its two seconds worth of publicity. Simply wasting the court's time, let alone further destroying the reputation of a good man running a good company.

I hold in the belief that good fundamentals prevail long term.

[Lucstar]

New short term high reached today ($4.88) dispite the ongoing sexual harrassment lawsuit


So far so good

I hold

[Lucstar]

Good reporting result today. Also good comments on outlook.

The psychological price barrier of $5 has been well smashed today.

If this momentum continues to play out, "we're in the killzone pal" (Gordon Gekko)

[Lucstar]

Stock price up 3.41% today to close at $5.15

Nice healthy profits rolling in now!

[Tyler Durden]

MYER and David Jones will continue to suffer from lacklustre sales in 2012, as nervous consumers limit their spending during the critical trading period after Christmas, say analysts.
Capping a horror stretch for the retail industry, analysts at Goldman Sachs yesterday cut their earnings forecasts for the nation's two biggest department stores, and predicted weak confidence would limit consumer spending.
Despite retailers' attempts to convince consumers to spend, analysts Phillip Kimber and Gabriel Wilson-Otto downgraded their 2012 profit forecasts for Myer by 14 per cent and David Jones by 9 per cent.
Spending on non-essential goods would remain weak in the crucial months of December and January because people lacked confidence and falling house and share prices would weigh on consumers, the analysts said.
The big department stores earn up to half their annual profits during December and January, and Myer yesterday brought forward the start date of its ''Boxing Day'' sale from December 26 to Christmas Eve.
However, Goldman's retail analysts said a bounce in consumer spending was unlikely until later next year, and they cut their forecast for Myer's 2012 after-tax profits by $20.8 million, to $129.8 million. The bank's forecast for David Jones' profits was cut by $12.2 million, to $126.5 million.
Goldman's view on Myer shares - which yesterday touched a record low of $1.95.5 - was cut to ''hold'' from ''buy''. The rating on David Jones was cut to ''sell'' from ''hold''.

http://m.smh.com.au/business/downgrades-for-myer-djs-20111223-1p8mf.html

Even Christmas won't help :(

[danbradster]

Myer yesterday brought forward the start date of its ''Boxing Day'' sale from December 26 to Christmas Eve.

Lol at their Boxing Day sale. Changing consumers' expectations...what will consumers expect from them next year? Discounts before Christmas, I think...

[notting]

I was invited to go have lunch with some friends at Chadstone, Australia’s premier shopping hub which has em all.
As I got into the car I put on my grumpy old man hat and started cursing the stupidity of going to Chadi on the anticipated biggest shopping day of the year.
As I drove I noticed that I had left at a miraculous moment for the traffic was much better than it usually is on a Saturday.
Then When I got to Chadi I was amazed at how many car parks there were. It's usually a bit of a battle.
Then when I got a great table at the most popular and trendy eatery I figured that everyone has already done their Christmas shopping and used the first Saturday to start there holidays!!
Retail figures are going to be shocking unless they had double the normal amount the few days before!!